Economy and Energy Publications

Nov
26

PULASKI POLICY PAPER: P. Przybyło – The last oil peak in the history of the world – geopolitical, sociological, and economic factors that shape the future of the Energy sector

Pulaski Policy Paper no 11, 2020, November 27,  2020 Current global energy consumption forecasts indicate that although renewables are set to expand by 50% between 2020 and 2025, they will not fully replace fossil fuels in our lifetimes. However, if recent geopolitical, economical, and sociological factors are taken into account, this prediction becomes obsolete. The world is about to enter a period of rapid energy transformation. At the end of 2019, modern renewable energy (excluding the traditional use of biomass) accounted for an estimated 11% of the total final energy consumption (TFEC) globally. The highest share of renewable energy use (26.4%) was in electrical uses excluding heating, cooling and transport. […]

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May
06

PULASKI REPORT: The Real Financial Cost of Nord Stream 2 – Economic Sensitivity Analysis of the Alternatives to the Offshore Pipeline

In any economic analysis of Nord Stream 2 the first question to be considered is the actual cost of the project. Over the last couple of years, a variety of publications have provided widely differing cost projections. The recent data suggest that Nord Stream 2 capital investment will reach €9,5-10 billion. Yet, the €9,5-10 billion is not the final construction cost of the project. Nord Stream 2 will not fulfil its function in isolation. Without additional distribution gas pipelines on both Russian and European sides, on its own, Nord Stream 2 will only be a pipe leading from nowhere to nowhere. This means that a sufficient pipeline capacity needs to […]

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Jan
29

ANALYSIS: The Nord Stream 2: the geopolitical dimension and possible influence of the U.S. sanctions on the project

Pulaski Policy Paper No. 3, 2018. January 29, 2018 In late November 2017 the Nord Stream 2 has been blamed by the U.S. Department of State for being Kremlin’s weapon of political blackmailing, which soon could be torpedoed by the U.S. sanctions against Russia[i]. The Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline is the new route for gas transit that Russian Gazprom and its European partners – OMV, Engie, Royal Dutch Shell, Uniper and Wintershall – plan to build through the Baltic Sea to Germany. It has been criticised for threatening energy security of Russia’s Western neighbours, in particular Ukraine and Poland. However, since recent U.S. bill on sanction in July 2017, […]

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Feb
28

ANALYSIS: Russian Energy Diplomacy: instruments and approaches

The understanding of close links between foreign and energy policy was first reflected in the Russian Federation’s 2003 Energy Strategy. Improving Russian position in international system through savvy use of energy resources is also one of the key goals of the next Energy Strategy – 2030. Moreover, the project of the future Russian Energy Strategy – 2035 has highlighted that a new key goal of energy policy for the coming years is to strengthen Russia’s position in the global energy markets. Therefore, one can read between the lines in all of Russia’s Energy Strategies that it aims at becoming a global energy superpower in the near future. Russian energy policy […]

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Feb
09

Nord Stream II – implications for the EU energy policy

In September 2015, during the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, representatives of Russia’s Gazprom, along with Western companies E.ON, BASF-Wintershall, Royal Dutch Shell, OMV and Engi, signed an agreement to build a gas pipeline: Nord Stream II. The pipeline would consist of two lines, each with a transport capacity of 27.5 billion cubic meters per year. [1] The planned pipeline will transport Russian gas through the Baltic Sea to the European Union. The project aims to strengthen Russia’s position as a major supplier of energy to EU countries, and brings with it a great deal of economic and geopolitical consequences for Europe. Nord Stream I In Berlin in 2005, representatives […]

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Jan
27

COMMENTARY: The diplomatic conflict between Russia and Turkey: a challenge to energy security

On November 24, 2015, the Turkish Air Force shot down a Russian SU-24 bomber. The President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, warned that this incident will bear ‘‘significant consequences’’ on bilateral relations. The conflict between Russia, a major oil and gas supplier to the EU, and Turkey, an important transit country, puts European energy security at risk. The Su-24 shoot-down President Putin denied allegations that the incident took place in Turkish territory. However prior to the shoot down, Russia had violated Turkish airspace on four occasions during the operation in Syria. Turkey warned Russia against such actions on prior occasions, yet intrusions continued. Moreover, Russia has a history of […]

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May
26

How to effectively transfer technology? Lessons learned for the Ballistic Missile Defense programme from shale gas revolution in Poland

Conclusion of the tender for medium-range Ballistic Missile Defense (‘BMD’, codename “Wisła”) creates both opportunities and challenges for Poland’s defense industry. One of most promising aspect is the transfer of technology and know-how from American providers to local entities. In this respect, important lessons can be learned from the Polish Oil and Gas Sector’s (‘OGS’) shale exploration efforts which share several characteristics with the BMD project. First, both shale OGS and BMD rely on sophisticated, proprietary technology, which make their implementation a capital intensive process. Hence, localization of production is necessary to cut costs, and ensure profitability of investments. Moreover, prior adaptation of regulation and operational procedures is needed to […]

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Jan
20

Energy Union – a key concept in the EU energy policy

In response to the energy crisis of 2009, the creation of an energy union has been promoted within the EU with varying degrees of commitment. Initially, the idea was called the European Energy Community, and was popularized by former European Commission President Jacques Delors and the former European Parliament President Jerzy Buzek. Their conception emphasised the creation of a common energy policy by developing energy solidarity mechanisms. While the name of the project as well as its main promoter (now Donald Tusk) have changed, the idea, proposed as a response to the energy crisis, is still valid. The consequences of the Ukrainian-Russian conflict have highlighted the need to take decisive […]

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