The Republic of Korea (ROK) security interests are being increasingly impacted by the war in Ukraine. The most important consequence of the conflict is the empowerment and emboldening of a nation that has been a perennial national security dilemma for both Seoul and Washington: the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK). The ROK suffers what could be called the collateral damage that the Ukraine war and the Russia-DPRK alliance it has produced. To address these issues the ROK is likely to invest in more minilateral groupings in the Indo-Pacific region as opposed to the previous practice of bilateral arrangements. These minilateral cooperative formations are likely to include the US – along with allies that share similar values – these being liberal democracy and a free-market economic system.

The Eastern Partnership enters its seventeenth year in 2026 at the confluence of several processes of fundamental importance for its future: the trajectories of the six partner states – Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine – are diverging today more than ever – ranging from the opening of successive accession negotiation clusters, through new partnership frameworks, to the effective freezing of cooperation. Russia’s war against Ukraine continues to define the security conditions of the entire continent, while the erosion of the existing international order and the growing presence of China, Turkey and the Gulf states in the region are forcing the EU to revise its own approach to Eastern policy – an approach whose financial instruments will be defined in the ongoing negotiations, now entering a decisive phase, on the EU’s Multiannual Financial Framework for 2028–2034. The concept presented in the remainder of this document, together with recommendations for its implementation in the ongoing budget negotiations, is intended to enable the European Union to meet the challenges described above and to build with its Eastern neighbours a lasting partnership, based on mutual benefit and capable of strengthening the security of the whole continent.

During this year’s Warsaw Security Forum, taking place in Warsaw on 12–13 October, experts will discuss the evolving relationship between North Korea, China and Russia during the roundtable “The North Korea–China–Russia Axis: Myth or Reality?”