Author: dr Tomasz Smura

On October 21, 2025, Sanae Takaichi, a conservative politician representing the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), became the new Prime Minister of Japan. The new prime minister faces a number of challenges related to the country’s political and economic situation, as well as the stabilization of her own party. Despite some possible adjustments, her appointment is unlikely to significantly change Japan’s security policy, which remains focused on balancing China and maintaining close cooperation with the United States.

Sanae Takaichi became the first woman in Japan’s history to hold the office of prime minister, and at the same time is the fourth politician to take on this mantle in the past five years – a reflection of the internal turmoil and scandals plaguing the Liberal Democratic Party. The LDP continues to struggle with unresolved issues related to illegal political funding and low public support. Following the July elections, the party also lost its majority in the upper house of parliament (it has been without a majority in the lower house since October 2024), which forced Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who had led the government since October 2024, to resign.

Takaichi’s selection was not a foregone conclusion, as the LDP’s longtime coalition partner, the pacifist Buddhist Komeito party, withdrew from the coalition. Komeito leader Tetsuo Saito argued that the LDP had failed to adequately cleanse itself after corruption scandals. However, by securing support from the right-wing Japan Innovation Party (JIP), Takaichi received 237 votes in the 465-member lower house of Japan’s parliament, guaranteeing her the position of prime minister.

Takaichi, an experienced politician, is known for her distinctly conservative views, particularly on immigration and social issues (she opposes same-sex marriage and allowing married women to retain their maiden names). Her election, combined with the withdrawal of the more moderate Komeito, may shift Japanese politics further to the right. In addition to securing stable support for her cabinet (the LDP–JIP coalition is two votes short of a stable majority in the lower house) and restoring order within her party, the new prime minister must also address serious economic challenges such as high inflation, long-term stagnation, and persistent structural problems including low birth rates and limited participation of women in the labor market. Economically, Takaichi supports an active role for the state through investment (similar to the “Abenomics” policies of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe) and a loose fiscal policy, which could, however, prove problematic amid Japan’s unusually high inflation.

Implications for Security Policy

Takaichi’s appointment is not expected to fundamentally alter the direction of Japan’s security and foreign policy established by long-serving Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and continued by his successors, particularly Fumio Kishida. This policy aims to balance China through closer cooperation with the United States and other Indo-Pacific partners (mainly Australia, Vietnam, the Philippines, and to some extent India), as well as through the steady expansion of Japan’s defense spending and military capabilities, including long-range strike capabilities.

Takaichi has announced that strengthening relations with the United States will be a top foreign policy priority, with an early opportunity to do so being the upcoming visit of Donald Trump to Japan. The new prime minister is also a proponent of closer cooperation with Taiwan, aligning with Washington’s expectations.

Relations with South Korea, however, may carry greater risks. Although historical disputes have been pragmatically de-escalated in recent years, Takaichi has regularly visited the Yasukuni Shrine—seen as a symbol of Japanese imperialism, as it honors Japan’s war dead, including convicted war criminals—and she advocates revising Japan’s pacifist constitution. Nevertheless, it can be assumed that, like her predecessors, Takaichi will demonstrate pragmatism on historical issues in order to avoid damaging relations with Seoul, especially since South Korea’s new president, Lee Jae-myung, has already expressed his desire to continue improving ties with Japan.

Author: Dr. Tomasz Smura, Member of the Board, Director of the International Security and Defence Programme