Defence and International Security

There is no alternative to admitting Ukraine if NATO’s goal is to ensure the security of the Euro-Atlantic community. Leaving Ukraine exposed will only lead to further instability and Russian aggression.

The large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine at the beginning of 2022 has surprised many experts and is a consistent, heavy reminder to the European people that war in Europe is not a matter of the past.

As the Ukrainian offensive in the direction of Tokmak stalls Ukrainian forces are exploring other avenues of approach.

While the Ukrainian offensive on the southern front continues the tempo of the Ukrainian advance has slowed down.

Ukrainian forces are continuing their major offensive operation along the southern frontline in the hopes of achieving a breakthrough.

The liberation of Robotyne and the major Ukrainian assault towards Tokmak may be the big make or break of the Ukrainian offensive.

For now the world can only watch as the Kremlin plays its hand.

Time seems to be slowly running out for the Ukrainian offensive and there is trouble brewing in the east.

The situation on the frontlines of Ukraine is developing both with noticeable successes for the Ukrainian forces, as well as mounting pressure from the Russian forces in the northern section of the eastern front.

The situation is difficult, but Ukrainian forces are ready for a fight, defences have been prepared, and the Western allies are searching for a way out of the Russian ultimatum.

As the war passes the 500 day mark Ukrainian armed forces are continuing their offensive in full swing.

A decision to transfer cluster munitions to Ukraine - banned by most states in the world (but not by the United States, Ukraine, and Russia) - is seen as a controversial move that highlights the problems of the Ukrainian army on the front line. However, this is not an unprecedented action, as claimed by some critics.

The June 24, 2023 coup by Y. Prigozhin and the march of the Wagner group to Moscow put into question the support for President Putin both in the army structures and among Russian citizens.

The Russian concentration of troops and counterattacks along the Lyman-Svatove-Kupyansk line are a worrying sign. Increased pressure from Russian forces along this sector might force Ukrainian forces to transfer additional resources and manpower, potentially at a cost to their own offensive efforts.

As Ukrainians hope to capitalise on the temporary chaos and unrest in Russia they are once again forced to contend with extensive Russian defences. Minefields are one of the primary challenges faced by advancing Ukrainian soldiers, and they require the right tools to forge a path through them.

The situation in Russian is extraordinarily dynamic and chaotic. The reasons, objectives and even allegiances of involved actors are in majority unknown. Amidst the informational chaos only one thing can be certain – whatever happens the influence on the war in Ukraine and Russia as a nation will be unprecedented.

Thus, while the progress might be slow it does not mean that the offensive is failing - quite the opposite it is just beginning.

If Russian forces continue to develop in such a manner and start applying similar philosophy to larger formations they could become a much more cohesive and effective fighting force with advanced battle tactics and access to vast amounts of men and resources to execute them.

However, the united will of the West to continuously support Ukraine and provide with the right tools for the job, and armoured vehicles to support their troops, might set the odds in Ukrainian favour and spare the lives of many Ukrainian soldiers. The ongoing offensive rests on the skill and bravery of Ukrainian soldiers and equipment and will of the allied West.

The long awaited Ukrainian counter offensive has finally begun. Ukrainian forces went on the attack sometime on June 7 in several areas along the line of contact stretching along the entire Zaporizhia Oblast and Donetsk Oblast up to Bakhmut.