Author: Malwina Talik

Pulaski Policy Paper, no. 13, 13th of November 2024

Belarus and Russia have deliberately weaponized migration as a geopolitical tool, with Belarus retaliating against EU sanctions and Russia expanding tactics at its border with Finland, challenging EU and NATO defenses, amplifying societal division, and exploiting human rights concerns.

Irregular border crossings through the Belarus-EU border have surged since mid-2021, with migrants from Western Asia and Africa entering Lithuania, Latvia, and Poland. It was no coincidence. Belarus deliberately exploited migration to retaliate against EU sanctions, using it as a political tool. Since late 2023, Russia has similarly instrumentalized migration on its border with Finland. Amid the ongoing full-scale war in Ukraine, concerns are rising that Russia and Belarus are testing the borders and response capabilities of national armies.

Russia’s attempts at instrumentalized migration (IM) may expand through proxies in other regions of the world. IM is a complex issue that remains an unresolved and pressing challenge for the EU and NATO. The targeted countries have taken a firm, uncompromising stance, managing to reduce but not fully prevent Belarus and Russia from deploying IM. However, European countries’ responses have raised human rights concerns, undermined the EU’s unity and credibility, and have been exploited by Russian and Belarusian propaganda.

This paper identifies measures to increase the costs of such operations and mitigate their impacts on targeted countries. It analyzes the modus operandi and objectives of Belarus and Russia, evaluates the responses of affected countries, and considers the concerns raised by human rights organizations regarding the consequences of IM. Addressing IM should not be a choice between security and respect for human rights as this plays into Russian and Belarusian propaganda. Increasing the costs for coercing states should be balanced with a nuanced approach and aim to reduce the impact on targeted societies, especially concerning psychological and political effects, such as growing polarization.

Policy Recommendations:

1. Strengthen diplomatic efforts to prevent the geopolitical exploitation of migrants by autocratic countries
2. Launch targeted online outreach campaigns in migrants’ countries of origin or stay
3. Broaden access to legal and secure migration pathways
4. Deescalate the debate on migration
5. Facilitate impactful multi-stakeholder dialogues to enhance the comprehensive and informed response

Author: Malwina Talik, Finalist of the Empowering Young Women Experts in Regional Security and Foreign Policy Fellowship

Malwina Talik is a Research Associate at the Institute for the Danube Region and Central Europe (Vienna), as well as a freelance political analyst cooperating with various institutions and providing expertise on Central and Eastern Europe, particularly Austria and Poland. Her current research focuses on democratic resilience, migration and asylum, gender equality, and the impact of AI and digitalization on society. She has previously worked at the Polish Academy of Sciences and the Polish Embassy in Vienna. She holds a joint M.A. degree in Global Studies and Global History from the University of Leipzig and the University of Vienna.

Views and opinions expressed are however those of the author only and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union or the European Education and Culture Executive Agency. Neither the European Union nor the granting authority can be held responsible for them.