Over the last decade, the foreign policy thinking of the political elites in Bucharest has been heavily influenced by the pursuit of a strategic goal: to be a pillar of stability and exporter of Euro-Atlantic values in the Black Sea region.[1][2] The outcome of the May 18 presidential elections, contested between a candidate modeled on the MAGA pattern and a pro-European centrist, is likely to make this goal harder to achieve.
The first round of the elections, rerun last week after the Constitutional Court annulled the 2024 results on the grounds of massive foreign interference, was won by George Simion, president of the radical right-wing AUR party and vice-president of the European Conservatives and Reformists Party (ECR). He managed to win 40,9% of the votes. A distant second was Bucharest’s mayor Nicușor Dan, who got only half of Simion’s score. The candidate of the ruling coalition failed to qualify for the runoff, which ultimately led to the resignation of the Prime Minister Ciolacu. For the first time in Romania’s history, the country is led by both an interim president and an interim government. This political reality is beginning to have an impact on the country’s economic stability, which is seen in the swift depreciation of the national currency.[3]
With an interim government and a broken coalition, the president to be elected next week is shaping up to be the real power broker in Bucharest. He will have the immediate opportunity to steer the formation of a new governmental coalition that more closely reflects his priorities by appointing a new prime minister. More importantly, given its constitutional attributes, he will be at the center of the foreign and security policy ecosystem. It is the Romanian President who represents the country at the European Council, appoints ambassadors and intelligence service directors. He will also oversee the shaping of a new national defense strategy.
George Simion – the candidate struggling to fit into the MAGA mold while looking moderate
Anticipating Trump’s victory in Washington, George Simion made consistent efforts to mold himself into the MAGA politician blueprint. He has cultivated this profile by appearing on podcasts by Republican strategists like Steve Bannon, as well as taking on their anti-Brussels, anti-globalization rhetoric. Mirroring the anti-establishment Trump model, he went so far as to claim that he was in danger of being assassinated.[4] Critical of the decision to cancel the 2024 elections, he promised to restore justice by appointing Călin Georgescu as prime minister if elected president.[5] He even mentioned that he would consider organizing snap elections if Georgescu’s appointment would be rejected by the Parliament.[6] From a domestic policy perspective, we can expect him to march on bringing his own far-right party to government for the first time, but also to try to adopt austerity policies to curb public spending.
In EU affairs, Simion wants to emulate the Meloni model.[7] Last year, he described the European Union as a new “Soviet Union”, criticizing the Von Der Leyen commission for trying to dissolve “the Christian identity of this continent”.[8] In this political campaign, the far-right leader strives to moderate his anti-Brussels rhetoric, presenting himself to the public as a “Euro-realist” who only wants to prevent the potential federalization of the Union and preserve the model of a Europe of nations.[9] Simion stated that he is firmly against the idea of establishing the European army.[10] Furthermore, he criticised the overregulation promoted by European institutions and pledged against the “green utopias” imposed by the Green Deal project.[11] On the EU-United States trade debate, Simion advanced the idea that Brussels must think of a profound reset on the grounds of liberalizing trade and lowering taxes, rather than “provoking the United States” with in-kind tariffs.[12]
While Simion merely repeats MAGA’s traditional talking points on European affairs, the candidate with the best chance of winning the presidential election has an atypical track record on regional security. George Simion is currently banned from entering both Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova.[13][14] These sanctions are motivated by his pro-union activities and irredentist rhetoric. As a civic activist in his youth, Simion was a leading voice of the movement for the unification of Romania with the Republic of Moldova. As an elected politician, he was accused by the governmental officials in Chișinău and later Kyiv of having meetings with representatives of the Russian intelligence service FSB and pursuing de-stabilization campaigns on their territory.[15] Despite these tense relations with Romania’s neighbors, Simion pledged he would maintain the tradition of making his first international visit as president to the Republic of Moldova and that he would seek to normalize relations with both Maia Sandu and Volodymyr Zelenskyy, but only provided that the rights of Romanian minorities are respected.[16]
Considering how pro-European politicians in the region view Simion as having strong pro-Russian sympathies and connections, it is likely that his presidency will play a diminishing role for Romania’s credibility as a promoter of Euro-Atlantic values in the Black Sea region. Firstly, one could expect a significant reduction in military support for Ukraine, but also that Romania will be a passive actor in efforts to maintain peace and rebuild Ukraine. He also pledged to cut all aid for Ukrainian war refugees that are currently residing in Romania.[17] Secondly, with Simion as president, the Romanian-Moldovan bilateral relations would weaken, and Chișinău would likely lose one of its strongest advocates for Moldova’s integration into the European Union. George Simion recently stated that Romania’s financial support for Moldova is unfair to Romanian citizens living in poverty and absurd given the “anti-Romanian” attitudes of the government in Chișinău.[18] This would be a dramatic shift, as Romania is currently one of Moldova’s largest donors, and the Bucharest authorities provide consistent administrative support to accelerate their accession to the EU.
Nicușor Dan – reconfirming Romania’s ambition to be a regional pillar of stability
Nicușor Dan explicitly pledged to seek NATO support if Russia invades Moldova.[19] If elected president, Nicușor Dan, the independent mayor of Bucharest, would continue Romania’s predictable Euro-Atlantic foreign policy. He is a supporter of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and an advocate for a just and sustainable peace, in which Europe assumes more responsibility and Romania is part of the joint effort, although not by sending troops.[20][21] Dan expressed optimism that if Romania continues to be “politically stable”, foreign investments on which national development depends will not be in jeopardy.[22] Although he is a defender of the predictable foreign policy, the Bucharest’s mayor argued that it should be less passive in EU decision-making structures and that Romania should speak out more decisively in favor of increasing the competitiveness of the EU bloc.[23]
What impact for Romania’s foreign policy and the CEE region?
Although a large majority of Romanians share Nicușor Dan’s pro-EU and pro-NATO views, continuity on the geopolitical stage may not be a good enough reason to make up for the significant gap of 2 million votes behind Simion.[24] As an independent candidate, Dan lacks the large party infrastructure needed to mobilize votes in the local communities, whereas Simion enjoys the logistical apparatus of the second political party in Romania. What’s more, Dan is at a disadvantage compared to Simion because he lacks the international visibility that the former enjoys thanks to the international MAGA movement.[25] It is expected that this support will materialize in the coming days in the form of endorsements from radical right-wing politicians in both Europe and the United States. Viktor Orban already announced publicly he supports Simion’s vision for the reform of the European Union, towards a „Europe of nations”.[26] Moreover, Simion has already stated in an interview with Trump’s strategist Steve Bannon that together with PiS’s Karol Nawrocki, they form “the winning MAGA ticket” in Eastern Europe.[27] The association with the MAGA wave could weigh heavily in the May 18 elections, given Romania’s strategic dependence on the United States, but also the fact that Trump is considered a friend of Romania by more than a quarter of Romanian citizens, which is a record in the European trend.[28]
Although Simion’s views towards Kremlin seem to have been moderated over time, and in this presidential campaign he directly named Russia as the biggest security risk for Romania, one must factor in the possibility that with the Eurosceptic Simion as president, EU is set to have another troublemaker in the Central and Eastern European region.[29][30] Led by George Simion, Romania, which was until recently a reliable partner in the pro-Ukrainian front, is likely to downplay its regional advocacy for strategic projects that are key for the future of European security, such as the enlargement and development of Union’s joint capabilities, and could even develop into a country that would block EU’s aid towards Ukraine.[31]
Romania’s decade-long aspiration to serve as a stable EU and NATO ally in the Black Sea region stands at a critical inflection point. The runoff between George Simion and Nicușor Dan is more than a domestic political competition, as it could fundamentally reshape Romania’s role in regional security dynamics. With a Simion victory as the most likely scenario, Romania’s position as a stability exporter would likely transform into that of an uncertainty generator. His strained relations with neighboring Ukraine and Moldova, combined with MAGA-informed skepticism toward European integration, would significantly diminish Romania’s influence as a promoter of Euro-Atlantic values. Romania’s potential withdrawal of diplomatic, financial, and military support from Ukraine and Moldova would create a vacuum in a region already destabilized by Russia’s aggression, with implications for the wider European security architecture.
Author: Antonia-Laura Pup, Non-resident Fellow at the Casimir Pulaski Foundation
Antonia-Laura Pup is a Romanian Fulbright Student in the field of Security Studies at Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University, working as a teaching assistant at the Department for science, technology and international affairs (STIA). She is also completing her studies with a master’s degree in International Security at Sciences Po, where she is researching China’s geoeconomic influence in the Black Sea region. Antonia-Laura has been the policy advisor of the President of the Defense Committee in the Romanian Chamber of Deputies. She is also one of the finalist of the Empowering Young Women Experts in Regional Security and Foreign Policy Fellowship organized by CPF n 2024
Sources:
[1] “Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu: Romania Is a Regional Pillar of Security and Economic Stability for Europe and the Strategic Partnership with the USA,” Guvernul României, accessed May 8, 2025, https://gov.ro/en/news/prime-minister-marcel-ciolacu-romania-is-a-regional-pillar-of-security-and-economic-stability-for-europe-and-the-strategic-partnership-with-the-usa.
[2] “K. Iohannis: Black Sea Region Is Key to Regional and Euro-Atlantic Security | EMBASSY OF ROMANIA in the Czech Republic,” accessed May 8, 2025, https://praga.mae.ro/en/romania-news/6314.
[3] Carmen Radu, “BREAKING Cursul euro a trecut oficial de 5 lei și a ajuns la un nivel istoric / Pe piața interbancară a ajuns aproape de 5,1 lei,” Economedia.ro (blog), May 6, 2025, https://economedia.ro/breaking-euro-a-depasit-5-lei-pe-piata-interbancara.html.
[4] Cosmina Fernoagă, “VIDEO Simion, declarații halucinante într-un interviu cu Steve Bannon: „Se vrea eliminarea mea chiar prin asasinare”, „îl reinstaurez pe Georgescu când ajung președinte”, „dacă administrația Trump nu se implică și lasă ambasadorul să facă ce vrea alegerile vor fi fraudate în România”,” G4Media.ro, April 20, 2025, https://www.g4media.ro/video-simion-declaratii-halucinante-intr-un-interviu-la-steve-bannon-se-vrea-eliminarea-mea-chiar-prin-asasinare-il-reinstaureaz-pe-georgescu-cand-ajung-presedinte.html.
[5] Antonia Pup, “Europe Holds Its Breath, as Ultra-Nationalist Tik-Tok Enabled Călin Georgescu Wins the First Round of Romanian Presidential Elections. What’s next?,” Casimir Pulaski Foundation (blog), December 3, 2024, https://pulaski.pl/en/europe-holds-its-breath-as-ultra-nationalist-tik-tok-enabled-calin-georgescu-wins-the-first-round-of-romanian-presidential-elections-whats-next/.
[6] “George Simion Nu Exclude Alegerile Anticipate Dacă Georgescu Nu Este Acceptat de Parlament ca Premier. Ce Spune Constituția – Știrile ProTV,” accessed May 8, 2025, https://stirileprotv.ro/stiri/politic/george-simion-nu-exclude-alegerile-anticipate-daca-georgescu-nu-este-acceptat-de-parlament-ca-premier-ce-spune-constitutia.html.
[7] “Romanian Hard-Right Chief Pitches Himself as Europe’s next Meloni,” POLITICO, November 23, 2024, https://www.politico.eu/article/romania-hard-right-aur-chief-pitches-himself-as-europes-next-giorgia-meloni-or-donald-trump-elections/.
[8] “George Simion atacă UE: „Noua Uniune Sovietică de la Bruxelles” – HotNews.ro,” February 18, 2024, https://hotnews.ro/george-simion-ataca-ue-noua-uniune-sovietica-de-la-bruxelles-16499.
[9] “I Am a Euro-Realist, Romania’s George Simion Tells Euronews,” euronews, May 6, 2025, https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/05/06/i-am-a-euro-realist-winner-of-romanian-presidential-vote-first-round-george-simion-tells-e.
[10] “George Simion, Declarații În Presa Austriacă: Vrem Să Facem Parte Din UE Și Din NATO. Nu Cred În Ideea Unei Armate Europene,” accessed May 8, 2025, https://www.mediafax.ro/politic/george-simion-declaratii-in-presa-austriaca-vrem-sa-facem-parte-din-ue-si-din-nato-nu-cred-in-ideea-unei-armate-europene-23537902.
[11] “Simion: America a reconstruit lumea liberă / Condusă de o administraţie curajoasă, cere echilibru / Răspunsul liderilor europeni, arogant şi conflictual / Soluţia – să renunţăm la supra-reglementare sufocantă şi la utopiile verzi impuse prin Green Deal,” News.ro, April 3, 2025, https://www.news.ro/politic-intern/simion-america-reconstruit-lumea-libera-condusa-administratie-curajoasa-cere-echilibru-raspunsul-liderilor-europeni-arogant-conflictual-solutia-renuntam-supra-reglementare-sufocanta-utopiile-verzi-1922405803002025041921990355.
[12] Redacția, “George Simion, despre tarifele SUA: ”Europa trebuie să-şi regândească abordarea: mai puţină supra-reglementare, mai puţine taxe pe tot ce mişcă, mai puţină ideologie şi mai multă bună-credinţă economică”,” G4Media.ro, April 3, 2025, https://www.g4media.ro/george-simion-despre-tarifele-sua-europa-trebuie-sa-si-regandeasca-abordarea-mai-putina-supra-reglementare-mai-putine-taxe-pe-tot-ce-misca-mai-putina-ideologie-si-mai-multa-buna-credinta.html.
[13] “De ce are George Simion interdicție de a intra în Ucraina. Guvernul României a dat publicității documentul primit de la Kiev,” November 15, 2024, https://www.digi24.ro/stiri/actualitate/politica/de-ce-are-george-simion-interdictie-de-a-intra-in-ucraina-guvernul-romaniei-a-dat-publicitatii-documentul-primit-de-la-kiev-3008175.
[14] “De ce are interdicție George Simion în Republica Moldova. Președintele Parlamentului moldovean: A avut acțiuni de destabilizare,” euronews.ro, March 31, 2025, https://www.euronews.ro/articole/de-ce-are-interdictie-george-simion-in-republica-moldova-presedintele-parlamentul.
[15] “VIDEOINTERVIU Fostul ministru al Apărării din Republica Moldova, care a câștigat procesul cu George Simion: „Acest general a spus că «Da», a fost informat, știe că George Simion s-a întâlnit cu persoane de la FSB în regiunea Cernăuți” – HotNews.ro,” April 28, 2025, https://hotnews.ro/videointerviu-fostul-ministru-al-apararii-din-republica-moldova-care-a-castigat-procesul-cu-george-simion-acest-general-a-spus-ca-da-a-fost-informat-stie-ca-george-simion-s-a-1953869.
[16] “Ce spune George Simion despre interdicțiile de intrare în Moldova și Ucraina. „Intenționez să fac prima vizită la Chișinău” – HotNews.ro,” May 6, 2025, https://hotnews.ro/ce-spune-george-simion-despre-interdictiile-de-intrare-in-moldova-si-ucraina-intentionez-sa-fac-prima-vizita-la-chisinau-1967005.
[17] Alexandru Mihăescu, “George Simion vrea să taie toate ajutoarele pentru refugiații ucraineni de război / România are stigmatul că trebuie să finanțeze Republica Moldova,” G4Media.ro, April 14, 2025, https://www.g4media.ro/george-simion-vrea-sa-taie-toate-ajutoarele-pentru-refugiatii-ucraineni-de-razboi-romania-are-stigmatul-ca-trebuie-sa-finanteze-republica-moldova.html.
[18] “George Simion: Noi avem acest stigmat că trebuie să finanţăm Republica Moldova. Până nu scoatem din sărăcie cetăţenii români, eu n-aş mai sprijini alte naţiuni – HotNews.ro,” April 14, 2025, https://hotnews.ro/george-simion-noi-avem-acest-stigmat-ca-trebuie-sa-finantam-republica-moldova-pana-nu-scoatem-din-saracie-cetatenii-romani-eu-n-as-mai-sprijini-alte-natiuni-1948160.
[19] “Ca președinte, Nicuşor Dan ar cere intervenția NATO dacă Rusia ar ataca Moldova: „Să facem tot ce ține de noi să nu ajungem aici”,” April 2, 2025, https://www.digi24.ro/stiri/actualitate/politica/ca-presedinte-nicusor-dan-ar-cere-interventia-nato-daca-rusia-ar-ataca-moldova-sa-facem-tot-ce-tine-de-noi-sa-nu-ajungem-aici-3181893.
[20] Redacția, “Nicuşor Dan: Susțin ferm Ucraina în lupta sa pentru o pace justă și sustenabilă. În aceste momente tensionate, să rămânem calmi şi lucizi/ Europa trebuie să îşi asume responsabilităţi, iar România trebuie să fie parte din efortul comun,” G4Media.ro, February 28, 2025, https://www.g4media.ro/nicusor-dan-sustin-ferm-ucraina-in-lupta-sa-pentru-o-pace-justa-si-sustenabila-in-aceste-momente-tensionate-sa-ramanem-calmi-si-lucizi-europa-trebuie-sa-isi-asume-responsabilitati-iar-romania-tre.html.
[21] “Nicușor Dan ar milita pentru netrimiterea trupelor de menținere a păcii în Ucraina,” Mediafax, March 15, 2025, https://www.mediafax.ro/politic/nicusor-dan-ar-milita-pentru-netrimiterea-trupelor-de-mentinere-a-pacii-in-ucraina-23529079.
[22] Redacția, “Nicuşor Dan: România a fost mult timp o ţară stabilă şi faptul că şi-a dublat PIB-ul în zece ani reprezintă un argument foarte bun / Trebuie doar să stabilizăm politic şi sigur vor continua investiţiile străine,” G4Media.ro, May 7, 2025, https://www.g4media.ro/nicusor-dan-romania-a-fost-mult-timp-o-tara-stabila-si-faptul-ca-si-a-dublat-pib-ul-in-zece-ani-reprezinta-un-argument-foarte-bun-trebuie-doar-sa-stabilizam-politic-si-sigur-vor-continua-investitii.html.
[23] “Nicușor Dan: „Dacă România va fi stabilizată politic, investițiile străine vor continua să vină”,” May 7, 2025, https://www.digi24.ro/alegeri-prezidentiale-2025/nicusor-dan-daca-romania-va-fi-stabilizata-politic-investitiile-straine-vor-continua-sa-vina-3230457.
[24] “Aproape 90% dintre români cred că România trebuie să rămână în UE și NATO (sondaj INSCOP),” April 10, 2025, https://www.digi24.ro/stiri/actualitate/social/aproape-90-dintre-romani-cred-ca-romania-trebuie-sa-ramana-in-ue-si-nato-sondaj-inscop-3193707.
[25] Célia Belin, “MAGA Goes Global: Trump’s Plan for Europe,” ECFR, May 7, 2025, https://ecfr.eu/publication/maga-goes-global-trumps-plan-for-europe/.
[26] Robert Lupițu, “‘Suntem Complet de Acord’. Premierul Maghiar Viktor Orban Citează Afirmațiile Lui George Simion Care Susține Că ‘Este Timpul Pentru Europa Națiunilor’ – Caleaeuropeana.Ro,” May 9, 2025, https://www.caleaeuropeana.ro/suntem-complet-de-acord-premierul-maghiar-viktor-orban-citeaza-afirmatiile-lui-george-simion-ca-este-timpul-pentru-europa-natiunilor/.
[27] Presidential Frontrunner Simion Tells Steve Bannon, “WE BASHED THE GLOBALISTS IN ROMANIA,” 2025, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ZwJ6PY_Yks.
[28] “Trump e considerat prieten al nostru de un sfert dintre români, ceea ce e aproape un record în Europa / Ce cer europenii – HotNews.ro,” March 29, 2025, https://hotnews.ro/trump-e-considerat-prieten-al-nostru-de-un-sfert-dintre-romani-ceea-ce-e-aproape-un-record-in-europa-ce-cer-europenii-1936488.
[29] “George Simion: ”Rusia este cea mai mare amenințare pentru noi ca popor”. Liderul AUR îl numește pe Putin ”criminal de război”,” Ziare.com, accessed May 8, 2025, https://ziare.com/george-simion/rusia-amenintare-romania-putin-criminal-razboi-1935394.
[30] Tomasz Obremski, “Is Slovakia a new pro-Kremlin trouble-maker in the EU?,” Fundacja im. Kazimierza Pułaskiego (blog), October 24, 2023, https://pulaski.pl/is-slovakia-a-new-pro-kremlin-trouble-maker-in-the-eu-2/.
[31] George Simion: „Nu Voi Ajuta Ucraina Până Când Ucraina Nu va Reuși Să Respecte Dreptul Românilor”, 2025, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NEiYUBIJMyc.
George Simion
Autor foto: Domena publiczna
Exporting (in)stability: How the presidential elections might shape Romania’s foreign policy
May 14, 2025
Author: Antonia-Laura Pup
George Simion
Autor foto: Domena publiczna
Exporting (in)stability: How the presidential elections might shape Romania’s foreign policy
Author: Antonia-Laura Pup
Published: May 14, 2025
Over the last decade, the foreign policy thinking of the political elites in Bucharest has been heavily influenced by the pursuit of a strategic goal: to be a pillar of stability and exporter of Euro-Atlantic values in the Black Sea region.[1][2] The outcome of the May 18 presidential elections, contested between a candidate modeled on the MAGA pattern and a pro-European centrist, is likely to make this goal harder to achieve.
The first round of the elections, rerun last week after the Constitutional Court annulled the 2024 results on the grounds of massive foreign interference, was won by George Simion, president of the radical right-wing AUR party and vice-president of the European Conservatives and Reformists Party (ECR). He managed to win 40,9% of the votes. A distant second was Bucharest’s mayor Nicușor Dan, who got only half of Simion’s score. The candidate of the ruling coalition failed to qualify for the runoff, which ultimately led to the resignation of the Prime Minister Ciolacu. For the first time in Romania’s history, the country is led by both an interim president and an interim government. This political reality is beginning to have an impact on the country’s economic stability, which is seen in the swift depreciation of the national currency.[3]
With an interim government and a broken coalition, the president to be elected next week is shaping up to be the real power broker in Bucharest. He will have the immediate opportunity to steer the formation of a new governmental coalition that more closely reflects his priorities by appointing a new prime minister. More importantly, given its constitutional attributes, he will be at the center of the foreign and security policy ecosystem. It is the Romanian President who represents the country at the European Council, appoints ambassadors and intelligence service directors. He will also oversee the shaping of a new national defense strategy.
George Simion – the candidate struggling to fit into the MAGA mold while looking moderate
Anticipating Trump’s victory in Washington, George Simion made consistent efforts to mold himself into the MAGA politician blueprint. He has cultivated this profile by appearing on podcasts by Republican strategists like Steve Bannon, as well as taking on their anti-Brussels, anti-globalization rhetoric. Mirroring the anti-establishment Trump model, he went so far as to claim that he was in danger of being assassinated.[4] Critical of the decision to cancel the 2024 elections, he promised to restore justice by appointing Călin Georgescu as prime minister if elected president.[5] He even mentioned that he would consider organizing snap elections if Georgescu’s appointment would be rejected by the Parliament.[6] From a domestic policy perspective, we can expect him to march on bringing his own far-right party to government for the first time, but also to try to adopt austerity policies to curb public spending.
In EU affairs, Simion wants to emulate the Meloni model.[7] Last year, he described the European Union as a new “Soviet Union”, criticizing the Von Der Leyen commission for trying to dissolve “the Christian identity of this continent”.[8] In this political campaign, the far-right leader strives to moderate his anti-Brussels rhetoric, presenting himself to the public as a “Euro-realist” who only wants to prevent the potential federalization of the Union and preserve the model of a Europe of nations.[9] Simion stated that he is firmly against the idea of establishing the European army.[10] Furthermore, he criticised the overregulation promoted by European institutions and pledged against the “green utopias” imposed by the Green Deal project.[11] On the EU-United States trade debate, Simion advanced the idea that Brussels must think of a profound reset on the grounds of liberalizing trade and lowering taxes, rather than “provoking the United States” with in-kind tariffs.[12]
While Simion merely repeats MAGA’s traditional talking points on European affairs, the candidate with the best chance of winning the presidential election has an atypical track record on regional security. George Simion is currently banned from entering both Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova.[13][14] These sanctions are motivated by his pro-union activities and irredentist rhetoric. As a civic activist in his youth, Simion was a leading voice of the movement for the unification of Romania with the Republic of Moldova. As an elected politician, he was accused by the governmental officials in Chișinău and later Kyiv of having meetings with representatives of the Russian intelligence service FSB and pursuing de-stabilization campaigns on their territory.[15] Despite these tense relations with Romania’s neighbors, Simion pledged he would maintain the tradition of making his first international visit as president to the Republic of Moldova and that he would seek to normalize relations with both Maia Sandu and Volodymyr Zelenskyy, but only provided that the rights of Romanian minorities are respected.[16]
Considering how pro-European politicians in the region view Simion as having strong pro-Russian sympathies and connections, it is likely that his presidency will play a diminishing role for Romania’s credibility as a promoter of Euro-Atlantic values in the Black Sea region. Firstly, one could expect a significant reduction in military support for Ukraine, but also that Romania will be a passive actor in efforts to maintain peace and rebuild Ukraine. He also pledged to cut all aid for Ukrainian war refugees that are currently residing in Romania.[17] Secondly, with Simion as president, the Romanian-Moldovan bilateral relations would weaken, and Chișinău would likely lose one of its strongest advocates for Moldova’s integration into the European Union. George Simion recently stated that Romania’s financial support for Moldova is unfair to Romanian citizens living in poverty and absurd given the “anti-Romanian” attitudes of the government in Chișinău.[18] This would be a dramatic shift, as Romania is currently one of Moldova’s largest donors, and the Bucharest authorities provide consistent administrative support to accelerate their accession to the EU.
Nicușor Dan – reconfirming Romania’s ambition to be a regional pillar of stability
Nicușor Dan explicitly pledged to seek NATO support if Russia invades Moldova.[19] If elected president, Nicușor Dan, the independent mayor of Bucharest, would continue Romania’s predictable Euro-Atlantic foreign policy. He is a supporter of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and an advocate for a just and sustainable peace, in which Europe assumes more responsibility and Romania is part of the joint effort, although not by sending troops.[20][21] Dan expressed optimism that if Romania continues to be “politically stable”, foreign investments on which national development depends will not be in jeopardy.[22] Although he is a defender of the predictable foreign policy, the Bucharest’s mayor argued that it should be less passive in EU decision-making structures and that Romania should speak out more decisively in favor of increasing the competitiveness of the EU bloc.[23]
What impact for Romania’s foreign policy and the CEE region?
Although a large majority of Romanians share Nicușor Dan’s pro-EU and pro-NATO views, continuity on the geopolitical stage may not be a good enough reason to make up for the significant gap of 2 million votes behind Simion.[24] As an independent candidate, Dan lacks the large party infrastructure needed to mobilize votes in the local communities, whereas Simion enjoys the logistical apparatus of the second political party in Romania. What’s more, Dan is at a disadvantage compared to Simion because he lacks the international visibility that the former enjoys thanks to the international MAGA movement.[25] It is expected that this support will materialize in the coming days in the form of endorsements from radical right-wing politicians in both Europe and the United States. Viktor Orban already announced publicly he supports Simion’s vision for the reform of the European Union, towards a „Europe of nations”.[26] Moreover, Simion has already stated in an interview with Trump’s strategist Steve Bannon that together with PiS’s Karol Nawrocki, they form “the winning MAGA ticket” in Eastern Europe.[27] The association with the MAGA wave could weigh heavily in the May 18 elections, given Romania’s strategic dependence on the United States, but also the fact that Trump is considered a friend of Romania by more than a quarter of Romanian citizens, which is a record in the European trend.[28]
Although Simion’s views towards Kremlin seem to have been moderated over time, and in this presidential campaign he directly named Russia as the biggest security risk for Romania, one must factor in the possibility that with the Eurosceptic Simion as president, EU is set to have another troublemaker in the Central and Eastern European region.[29][30] Led by George Simion, Romania, which was until recently a reliable partner in the pro-Ukrainian front, is likely to downplay its regional advocacy for strategic projects that are key for the future of European security, such as the enlargement and development of Union’s joint capabilities, and could even develop into a country that would block EU’s aid towards Ukraine.[31]
Romania’s decade-long aspiration to serve as a stable EU and NATO ally in the Black Sea region stands at a critical inflection point. The runoff between George Simion and Nicușor Dan is more than a domestic political competition, as it could fundamentally reshape Romania’s role in regional security dynamics. With a Simion victory as the most likely scenario, Romania’s position as a stability exporter would likely transform into that of an uncertainty generator. His strained relations with neighboring Ukraine and Moldova, combined with MAGA-informed skepticism toward European integration, would significantly diminish Romania’s influence as a promoter of Euro-Atlantic values. Romania’s potential withdrawal of diplomatic, financial, and military support from Ukraine and Moldova would create a vacuum in a region already destabilized by Russia’s aggression, with implications for the wider European security architecture.
Author: Antonia-Laura Pup, Non-resident Fellow at the Casimir Pulaski Foundation
Antonia-Laura Pup is a Romanian Fulbright Student in the field of Security Studies at Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University, working as a teaching assistant at the Department for science, technology and international affairs (STIA). She is also completing her studies with a master’s degree in International Security at Sciences Po, where she is researching China’s geoeconomic influence in the Black Sea region. Antonia-Laura has been the policy advisor of the President of the Defense Committee in the Romanian Chamber of Deputies. She is also one of the finalist of the Empowering Young Women Experts in Regional Security and Foreign Policy Fellowship organized by CPF n 2024
Sources:
[1] “Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu: Romania Is a Regional Pillar of Security and Economic Stability for Europe and the Strategic Partnership with the USA,” Guvernul României, accessed May 8, 2025, https://gov.ro/en/news/prime-minister-marcel-ciolacu-romania-is-a-regional-pillar-of-security-and-economic-stability-for-europe-and-the-strategic-partnership-with-the-usa.
[2] “K. Iohannis: Black Sea Region Is Key to Regional and Euro-Atlantic Security | EMBASSY OF ROMANIA in the Czech Republic,” accessed May 8, 2025, https://praga.mae.ro/en/romania-news/6314.
[3] Carmen Radu, “BREAKING Cursul euro a trecut oficial de 5 lei și a ajuns la un nivel istoric / Pe piața interbancară a ajuns aproape de 5,1 lei,” Economedia.ro (blog), May 6, 2025, https://economedia.ro/breaking-euro-a-depasit-5-lei-pe-piata-interbancara.html.
[4] Cosmina Fernoagă, “VIDEO Simion, declarații halucinante într-un interviu cu Steve Bannon: „Se vrea eliminarea mea chiar prin asasinare”, „îl reinstaurez pe Georgescu când ajung președinte”, „dacă administrația Trump nu se implică și lasă ambasadorul să facă ce vrea alegerile vor fi fraudate în România”,” G4Media.ro, April 20, 2025, https://www.g4media.ro/video-simion-declaratii-halucinante-intr-un-interviu-la-steve-bannon-se-vrea-eliminarea-mea-chiar-prin-asasinare-il-reinstaureaz-pe-georgescu-cand-ajung-presedinte.html.
[5] Antonia Pup, “Europe Holds Its Breath, as Ultra-Nationalist Tik-Tok Enabled Călin Georgescu Wins the First Round of Romanian Presidential Elections. What’s next?,” Casimir Pulaski Foundation (blog), December 3, 2024, https://pulaski.pl/en/europe-holds-its-breath-as-ultra-nationalist-tik-tok-enabled-calin-georgescu-wins-the-first-round-of-romanian-presidential-elections-whats-next/.
[6] “George Simion Nu Exclude Alegerile Anticipate Dacă Georgescu Nu Este Acceptat de Parlament ca Premier. Ce Spune Constituția – Știrile ProTV,” accessed May 8, 2025, https://stirileprotv.ro/stiri/politic/george-simion-nu-exclude-alegerile-anticipate-daca-georgescu-nu-este-acceptat-de-parlament-ca-premier-ce-spune-constitutia.html.
[7] “Romanian Hard-Right Chief Pitches Himself as Europe’s next Meloni,” POLITICO, November 23, 2024, https://www.politico.eu/article/romania-hard-right-aur-chief-pitches-himself-as-europes-next-giorgia-meloni-or-donald-trump-elections/.
[8] “George Simion atacă UE: „Noua Uniune Sovietică de la Bruxelles” – HotNews.ro,” February 18, 2024, https://hotnews.ro/george-simion-ataca-ue-noua-uniune-sovietica-de-la-bruxelles-16499.
[9] “I Am a Euro-Realist, Romania’s George Simion Tells Euronews,” euronews, May 6, 2025, https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/05/06/i-am-a-euro-realist-winner-of-romanian-presidential-vote-first-round-george-simion-tells-e.
[10] “George Simion, Declarații În Presa Austriacă: Vrem Să Facem Parte Din UE Și Din NATO. Nu Cred În Ideea Unei Armate Europene,” accessed May 8, 2025, https://www.mediafax.ro/politic/george-simion-declaratii-in-presa-austriaca-vrem-sa-facem-parte-din-ue-si-din-nato-nu-cred-in-ideea-unei-armate-europene-23537902.
[11] “Simion: America a reconstruit lumea liberă / Condusă de o administraţie curajoasă, cere echilibru / Răspunsul liderilor europeni, arogant şi conflictual / Soluţia – să renunţăm la supra-reglementare sufocantă şi la utopiile verzi impuse prin Green Deal,” News.ro, April 3, 2025, https://www.news.ro/politic-intern/simion-america-reconstruit-lumea-libera-condusa-administratie-curajoasa-cere-echilibru-raspunsul-liderilor-europeni-arogant-conflictual-solutia-renuntam-supra-reglementare-sufocanta-utopiile-verzi-1922405803002025041921990355.
[12] Redacția, “George Simion, despre tarifele SUA: ”Europa trebuie să-şi regândească abordarea: mai puţină supra-reglementare, mai puţine taxe pe tot ce mişcă, mai puţină ideologie şi mai multă bună-credinţă economică”,” G4Media.ro, April 3, 2025, https://www.g4media.ro/george-simion-despre-tarifele-sua-europa-trebuie-sa-si-regandeasca-abordarea-mai-putina-supra-reglementare-mai-putine-taxe-pe-tot-ce-misca-mai-putina-ideologie-si-mai-multa-buna-credinta.html.
[13] “De ce are George Simion interdicție de a intra în Ucraina. Guvernul României a dat publicității documentul primit de la Kiev,” November 15, 2024, https://www.digi24.ro/stiri/actualitate/politica/de-ce-are-george-simion-interdictie-de-a-intra-in-ucraina-guvernul-romaniei-a-dat-publicitatii-documentul-primit-de-la-kiev-3008175.
[14] “De ce are interdicție George Simion în Republica Moldova. Președintele Parlamentului moldovean: A avut acțiuni de destabilizare,” euronews.ro, March 31, 2025, https://www.euronews.ro/articole/de-ce-are-interdictie-george-simion-in-republica-moldova-presedintele-parlamentul.
[15] “VIDEOINTERVIU Fostul ministru al Apărării din Republica Moldova, care a câștigat procesul cu George Simion: „Acest general a spus că «Da», a fost informat, știe că George Simion s-a întâlnit cu persoane de la FSB în regiunea Cernăuți” – HotNews.ro,” April 28, 2025, https://hotnews.ro/videointerviu-fostul-ministru-al-apararii-din-republica-moldova-care-a-castigat-procesul-cu-george-simion-acest-general-a-spus-ca-da-a-fost-informat-stie-ca-george-simion-s-a-1953869.
[16] “Ce spune George Simion despre interdicțiile de intrare în Moldova și Ucraina. „Intenționez să fac prima vizită la Chișinău” – HotNews.ro,” May 6, 2025, https://hotnews.ro/ce-spune-george-simion-despre-interdictiile-de-intrare-in-moldova-si-ucraina-intentionez-sa-fac-prima-vizita-la-chisinau-1967005.
[17] Alexandru Mihăescu, “George Simion vrea să taie toate ajutoarele pentru refugiații ucraineni de război / România are stigmatul că trebuie să finanțeze Republica Moldova,” G4Media.ro, April 14, 2025, https://www.g4media.ro/george-simion-vrea-sa-taie-toate-ajutoarele-pentru-refugiatii-ucraineni-de-razboi-romania-are-stigmatul-ca-trebuie-sa-finanteze-republica-moldova.html.
[18] “George Simion: Noi avem acest stigmat că trebuie să finanţăm Republica Moldova. Până nu scoatem din sărăcie cetăţenii români, eu n-aş mai sprijini alte naţiuni – HotNews.ro,” April 14, 2025, https://hotnews.ro/george-simion-noi-avem-acest-stigmat-ca-trebuie-sa-finantam-republica-moldova-pana-nu-scoatem-din-saracie-cetatenii-romani-eu-n-as-mai-sprijini-alte-natiuni-1948160.
[19] “Ca președinte, Nicuşor Dan ar cere intervenția NATO dacă Rusia ar ataca Moldova: „Să facem tot ce ține de noi să nu ajungem aici”,” April 2, 2025, https://www.digi24.ro/stiri/actualitate/politica/ca-presedinte-nicusor-dan-ar-cere-interventia-nato-daca-rusia-ar-ataca-moldova-sa-facem-tot-ce-tine-de-noi-sa-nu-ajungem-aici-3181893.
[20] Redacția, “Nicuşor Dan: Susțin ferm Ucraina în lupta sa pentru o pace justă și sustenabilă. În aceste momente tensionate, să rămânem calmi şi lucizi/ Europa trebuie să îşi asume responsabilităţi, iar România trebuie să fie parte din efortul comun,” G4Media.ro, February 28, 2025, https://www.g4media.ro/nicusor-dan-sustin-ferm-ucraina-in-lupta-sa-pentru-o-pace-justa-si-sustenabila-in-aceste-momente-tensionate-sa-ramanem-calmi-si-lucizi-europa-trebuie-sa-isi-asume-responsabilitati-iar-romania-tre.html.
[21] “Nicușor Dan ar milita pentru netrimiterea trupelor de menținere a păcii în Ucraina,” Mediafax, March 15, 2025, https://www.mediafax.ro/politic/nicusor-dan-ar-milita-pentru-netrimiterea-trupelor-de-mentinere-a-pacii-in-ucraina-23529079.
[22] Redacția, “Nicuşor Dan: România a fost mult timp o ţară stabilă şi faptul că şi-a dublat PIB-ul în zece ani reprezintă un argument foarte bun / Trebuie doar să stabilizăm politic şi sigur vor continua investiţiile străine,” G4Media.ro, May 7, 2025, https://www.g4media.ro/nicusor-dan-romania-a-fost-mult-timp-o-tara-stabila-si-faptul-ca-si-a-dublat-pib-ul-in-zece-ani-reprezinta-un-argument-foarte-bun-trebuie-doar-sa-stabilizam-politic-si-sigur-vor-continua-investitii.html.
[23] “Nicușor Dan: „Dacă România va fi stabilizată politic, investițiile străine vor continua să vină”,” May 7, 2025, https://www.digi24.ro/alegeri-prezidentiale-2025/nicusor-dan-daca-romania-va-fi-stabilizata-politic-investitiile-straine-vor-continua-sa-vina-3230457.
[24] “Aproape 90% dintre români cred că România trebuie să rămână în UE și NATO (sondaj INSCOP),” April 10, 2025, https://www.digi24.ro/stiri/actualitate/social/aproape-90-dintre-romani-cred-ca-romania-trebuie-sa-ramana-in-ue-si-nato-sondaj-inscop-3193707.
[25] Célia Belin, “MAGA Goes Global: Trump’s Plan for Europe,” ECFR, May 7, 2025, https://ecfr.eu/publication/maga-goes-global-trumps-plan-for-europe/.
[26] Robert Lupițu, “‘Suntem Complet de Acord’. Premierul Maghiar Viktor Orban Citează Afirmațiile Lui George Simion Care Susține Că ‘Este Timpul Pentru Europa Națiunilor’ – Caleaeuropeana.Ro,” May 9, 2025, https://www.caleaeuropeana.ro/suntem-complet-de-acord-premierul-maghiar-viktor-orban-citeaza-afirmatiile-lui-george-simion-ca-este-timpul-pentru-europa-natiunilor/.
[27] Presidential Frontrunner Simion Tells Steve Bannon, “WE BASHED THE GLOBALISTS IN ROMANIA,” 2025, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ZwJ6PY_Yks.
[28] “Trump e considerat prieten al nostru de un sfert dintre români, ceea ce e aproape un record în Europa / Ce cer europenii – HotNews.ro,” March 29, 2025, https://hotnews.ro/trump-e-considerat-prieten-al-nostru-de-un-sfert-dintre-romani-ceea-ce-e-aproape-un-record-in-europa-ce-cer-europenii-1936488.
[29] “George Simion: ”Rusia este cea mai mare amenințare pentru noi ca popor”. Liderul AUR îl numește pe Putin ”criminal de război”,” Ziare.com, accessed May 8, 2025, https://ziare.com/george-simion/rusia-amenintare-romania-putin-criminal-razboi-1935394.
[30] Tomasz Obremski, “Is Slovakia a new pro-Kremlin trouble-maker in the EU?,” Fundacja im. Kazimierza Pułaskiego (blog), October 24, 2023, https://pulaski.pl/is-slovakia-a-new-pro-kremlin-trouble-maker-in-the-eu-2/.
[31] George Simion: „Nu Voi Ajuta Ucraina Până Când Ucraina Nu va Reuși Să Respecte Dreptul Românilor”, 2025, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NEiYUBIJMyc.
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