Author: Karolina Pawlik & Agnieszka Grzegorzewska

Poland and Norway are at the height of their bilateral relations. Never before had the ties between our countries been so multifaceted and intense. Despite this, the Norwegian election went utmost unnoticed in Poland, with just a few mentions in a couple of newspapers. 

Norwegian politics has for years been dominated by two political blocks – the so-called Red-Green Alliance (den rødgrønne blokken) and the so-called Centre-Right or Conservative Alliance (den borgerlige blokken). Each of these alliances includes a number of parties. The former constitutes of the Labour Party (Arbeiderpartiet; AP), the Socialist Left (Sosialistisk Venstreparti; SV), the Center Party (Senterpartiet; Sp), the Red Party (Rødt; R), and the Green (Miljøpartiet de Grønne; MDG), with R and MDG often remaining independent and supporting the  socialist/left-wing government on a case-by-case basis. The Centre-Right Alliance includes the following parties: the Conservative Party (Høyre; H), Progress Party (Fremskrittspartiet; FrP), the Liberal Party (Venstre; V), and the Christian Democratic Party (Kristelig Folkeparti; KrF).

Domestic issues in the election – economy is the name of the game

The most prevalent issues in the electoral campaign were related to the state of the economy, cost of living and growing disparities. Taxation, specifically the wealth tax, became a huge point of contention between the parties. The wealth tax is paid for assets over 1.7 million NOK (approx. 625,000 PLN) and 1.1% if one has accumulated assets worth 20.7 million NOK (5.6 millon PLN) [1]. This has caused discontent among those affected and became a crucial issue in the 2025 election campaign.  The Centre-Right coalition called for cuts to the tax or its complete abolition. 

 

Another contentious issue has been the future of the Norwegian oil and gas sector . In this case, the division of political views does not follow traditional party faultlines. For example, the AP, Høyre, Sp and KrF displayed favourable outlook on the continued exploration, arguing that Norway as a climate-conscious state with strict environmental laws is better fit to extract fossil fuels than countries with abhorrent labour and environmental regulations [2]. Four parties – SV, R MDG and V – from across the political aisle have argued that Norway should cease to extract oil and gas completely for environmental reasons. 

Foreign policy in the election – increase interest in times of turmoil

Unlike previous elections, foreign policy issues became more prominent. One explanation for this is the fact that geopolitical tensions are on the rise and the international system is more unstable. According to the latest study by the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI), 40% of Norwegians acknowledge that Norway’s influence in the world and Norway’s international reputation are important in this election [3]. It is important to note that the survey did not differentiate between voters of specific parties. 

Among foreign policy topics the following five have been deemed the most important: relation to the US, relations with the EU, the role of NATO, war in Gaza and war in Ukraine. Of these five topics perhaps the most interesting are two trends related to relations with the US and the EU, respectively.  Norwegians are being more sceptical of the alliance with the US and are more eager to invest in common security and defence projects/initiatives with fellow Europeans [4]. NUPI researchers call this the “Trump effect”. 

 

The other visible trend is Norwegians’ ambivalent attitude towards the EU. This is not entirely a new phenomenon in Norwegian politics, but it is worth noting that despite changing circumstances Norwegians remain undecided and divided on the question of their relation to the EU. 43% of Norwegians would vote for the current EEA Agreement, while 31% would vote against [5]. There is no preferred alternative to the current arrangement, as only 33% of respondents are in favour of full EU membership and 37% would like a less comprehensive arrangement. Hence, it seems that the most likely outcome in the foreseeable future is the current solution, namely the EEA agreement. This ambivalence is also present among political parties, where the question of how to structure relations with the EU are more complicated than the simple Red-Green and Centre-Right division. Sp, SV, R and FrP are against the current EEA Agreement and would like a more sovereign approach to relations in the EU, namely abolishing the agreement and substituting it with something less constraining (from their point of view). The current solution seems to be supported by merely two parties – KrF and Ap. 

The usage of the funds from the  Government Pension Fund (Norsk Oljefondet) to invest in Israeli businesses, in particular from the defence sector,  became a great point of contention between the voters, and parties alike. Even though AP has previously committed to diverging the funds from companies in the occupied Palestine, some of its coalition partners called for further action, including imposing sanctions on Israel [6]. However, the parties in the Center-Right coalition opposed such, in their view, radical move, and advocated for either peaceful resolution of the conflict without sanctions, or in the fringe case of FrP, even closer cooperation with Israel [7].

Election Results and what do they mean

The Norwegian 2025 Parliamentary elections saw the highest voter turnout since 1989, with 80% of citizens going to polls [8]. One reason for higher turnout this year is the fact that the electoral race was so even between the alliances and a number of the smaller parties were close to the electoral threshold. This tight political race resulted in greater voter mobilisation and a notion that their vote counted more than in previous elections [9]. 

Out of all nine parties which got into Storting, AP received the most electoral mandates. Even though that results in one-party government in Norway, the Labour Party will still remain reliant on all of its alliance partners to possess the required majority to pass policies, as together they carry 87 out of all 169 electoral mandates [10]. 

Notably, rightwing, populist FrP received 12 percentage points more votes than in the prior elections. FrP, which traditionally was popular among elderly and rural voters, has this election gained considerable voters among young men and urban inhabitants [11]. On the other hand, the Conservative Party received the least amount of votes in the last 20 years, resulting in the resignation of the party leader Erna Solberg in the days following the results [12]. 

PM Jonas Gahr Støre managed to convince voters that despite rising cost of living, Norwegian were better off with his vision for the country rather than experimenting with a new type of leader – a populist, right-wing – from a party that never played first fiddle in the government, i.e. never had the prime minister position. The prime minister contest came down to a choice between the experienced, steady Støre and the more extravagant Sylvie Listhaug, the leader of FrP, who despite claiming that the largest party should have the prime ministership refuted to admit she is putting herself forward for the job. She declined to participate in the PM candidate debate on Norwegian TV. The prospects of Listhuag as prime minister have put off some of the more liberal voters of the Centre-Right coalition, namely voters of Venstre, who chose the twin-like (in terms of climate and environment policies mostly) Miljøpartiet. 

What to expect?

This will be a single-party government meaning that governing will not be a walk in the park as AP will rely on votes from other parties in the Red-Green Alliance. This means compromising on a number of their policies to appeal to potential partners. The economy and cost of living will certainly remain the government’s most urgent priority, with other domestic issues on education, health and security dominating the agenda. Nevertheless, Norway will remain an active and engaged partner in international relations, not only because of the turbulent geopolitical landscape but also because of the politicians in charge of AP-  Jonas Gahr Støre (prime minister), Jens Stoltenberg (finance minister) and Espen Bart Eide(foreign affairs minister). Furthermore, this election showed that Norwegian society is becoming gradually more engaged in and interested in  the state’s foreign policy.

Sources

[1] Finansdepartementet (2021). Tilleggsnummer til Statsbudsjettet 2022: Endring i formuesskatten for bedre fordeling. [online] Regjeringen.no.  https://www.regjeringen.no/no/aktuelt/endring-i-formuesskatten-for-bedre-fordeling/id2884950/ [accessed 17.09.2025].

[2] NRK (2025a). Hva mener partiene? [online] NRK https://www.nrk.no/valg/2025/partiguide/nb/politikken/olje-eller-klima [accessed 17.09.2025].

[3] Svendsen, Ø., Leira, H. and Weltzien, Å. (2025). Utenriks- og sikkerhetspolitiske holdninger i valgåret 2025 | NUPI. [online] NUPI.  https://www.nupi.no/publikasjoner/cristin-pub/utenriks-og-sikkerhetspolitiske-holdninger-i-valgaaret-2025 [accessed 17.09.2025].

[4] De fem viktigste utenrikspolitiske sakene i valget | NUPI, (2025). [Podcast] NUPI. NUPI. 27 Aug.  https://www.nupi.no/nyheter/de-fem-viktigste-utenrikspolitiske-sakene-i-valget [accessed 17.09.2025].

[5] op.cit Svendsen et. al (2025), pp.10.

[6] op.cit NRK (2025a).

[7] ibid. NRK (2025a).

[8] Valgdirektoratet (2025). Valgresultat. [online] Valgresultat.no.  https://valgresultat.no/valg/2025/st#partyDistribution

[9] Marte Dæhlen (2025). Derfor stemte så mange ved årets stortingsvalg. [online] Forskning.no.  https://www.forskning.no/demokrati-valg/derfor-stemte-sa-mange-ved-arets-stortingsvalg/2550613 [accessed  22.09.2025].

[10] NRK (2025b). Valgresultat 2025. [online] NRK.  https://www.nrk.no/valg/2025/resultat/[accessed 22.09.2025].

[11] Mullis, M.E., Otterdal, Ø. and Bogen, S.E. (2025). Abort, Israel og to kjønn: Kampen om unge menn. [online] NRK.  https://www.nrk.no/rogaland/xl/partiet-konservativt-bruker-abort_-israel-og-to-kjonn-i-kampen-om-unge-menn-1.17563751?fbclid=IwdGRjcAMzd9NjbGNrAzN30WV4dG4DYWVtAjExAAEeQ_1t0A8hnN9tI0ygbawCuHDtqauH4dfX5q7WpAZq4nY0jbeJiL-NvkSzJxg_aem_xyuNdWeQxUTFQrMmkPe7qA [accessed 22.09.025]. 

[12] NRK (2025a). Alt om Valg 2025. [online] NRK. https://www.nrk.no/valg/2025/ [accessed 22.09.2025].