Author: dr. Tomasz Smura, Member of the Board, Director of Security and Defence Programme, Casimir Pulaski Foundation

On June 24–25, 2025, a meeting of the North Atlantic Council at the level of heads of state and government was held in The Hague. The NATO summit was largely overshadowed by the United States’ military operation in Iran, and its agenda was relatively narrow. Despite concerns, however, a compromise on military spending was achieved, and the cohesion of the Alliance was maintained.

The NATO summit in The Hague – the first since the Trump administration took office in the United States – was relatively short, very limited in scope, and focused on the issue of military spending, as reflected in the very brief final communiqué (only 7 points, compared to 38 in Washington and 90 in Vilnius). The summit’s agenda primarily aligned with the expectations of the Trump administration, which is demanding a significant increase in defense spending from European allies. Other issues (such as continued support for Ukraine and its potential NATO membership, explicitly addressed in the two previous communiqués) and challenges were essentially omitted. Apart from pointing to threats from Russia and terrorism, the communiqué did not mention challenges in NATO’s neighborhood (the Middle East, Georgia, Moldova, China’s assertive policy, nuclear issues, etc.) or new domains and dimensions (cyber, space, climate, etc.). Due to this narrow agenda, the leaders of the P4 partner countries (Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand) opted not to attend the Hague summit, and the event itself did not generate the level of anticipation seen at previous Alliance leadership meetings.

It appears that the Allies judged it better to avoid reopening previously agreed-upon topics than to initiate discussions on them with the new U.S. administration. Nonetheless, despite early-year concerns (especially after U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance’s speech at the Munich Security Conference in February 2025), the cohesion of the Alliance was preserved. All Allies accepted a consensus proposed by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, which calls for allocating 5% of GDP to security (of which 3.5% would go to defense in line with current NATO methodology, and the remaining 1.5% to other areas such as cybersecurity, critical infrastructure, and the defense industry) by 2035. It is a success that all Allies (including Spain, which had raised objections) committed to significantly increasing military expenditures to a level not seen since the end of the Cold War. On the sidelines of the North Atlantic Council, several smaller-format meetings were held, including a bilateral meeting between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky, and a meeting between the Ukrainian President and the E5 group countries (Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy, and Poland).

Some discontent may remain regarding the motivations behind the increase in military spending (as one participant of the Munich Security Conference held on the margins of the Summit noted – European countries seem to fear Donald Trump in this context more than Vladimir Putin) and the very long implementation timeline, which could suggest that some Allies are not necessarily committed to fulfilling the new pledges, possibly hoping that American pressure or the threat from Russia may ease over time. From Poland’s perspective, the summit’s results should be interpreted rather positively. The U.S. administration emphasized its commitment to NATO, and the new, higher pledge to increase military spending aligns with Warsaw’s agenda. Of course, the omission of the issue of Ukraine may be disappointing, but a more serious approach by European NATO members to their own defense resources and arms production capacity will also serve that cause.