Author: Jagoda Synowiec

Nearly four years after the beginning of the full scale Russian invasion on Ukraine, Poland faces a strategic decision on how to advance cooperation with Ukraine in the rapidly growing field of military drone production. The choice lies between basing this partnership on the NATO frameworks or pursuing it bilaterally. Each of the options presents specific advantages and trade-offs in terms of speed, control, industrial benefit, and strategic influence.

The strengths of pursuing such cooperation through NATO include strong political legitimacy, collective funding opportunities, assuring the compliance of technology with alliance’s re­quirements and integration into alliance-wide mechanisms. It could also strengthen Poland’s leadership within the Alliance, which is an important subject in the current political agenda. However, the NATO route would likely face bureaucratic delays, diluted industrial benefits, and dependence on consensus among allies, which could slow implementation and limit Poland’s control over production and intellectual property.

Conversely, a bilateral option would imply more agility, rapid prototyping and direct industrial gains. Poland’s state and private defence sectors could benefit from Ukraine’s battlefield innova­tion, creating a strong regional production base. This format would also allow both sides to react quickly to operational needs and to potentially attract EU defence funding. However, this option comes with higher financial burdens on Poland and weaker collective deterrence value compared to an alliance-branded project.

Given these trade-offs, the paper recommends a hybrid approach: “Bilateral first, NATO later.” Initially, bilateral co-production and R&D should be prioritised to generate quick and practical outcomes, to then scale and institutionalise successful projects through NATO’s innovation and procurement frameworks, thus ensuring long-term standardisation and strategic integration. This dual-track strategy would allow Poland to balance short-term defence effectiveness with its broader ambition to anchor Ukraine more firmly within Euro-Atlantic structures.

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