Author: Tomasz Obremski

France drags itself and Europe to political, financial and leadership crisis, just in times when historical, brave and maybe controversial decisions on its security have to be made.

The French government collapsed yesterday, less than two weeks ahead of the vote of no confidence in Germany, where Olaf Scholz’s traffic light coalition is expected to lose its majority following the FDP’s withdrawal in November. This split has set Germany on course for snap parliamentary elections in February, with coalition-building in Berlin expected to stretch well into late spring 2025. In contrast, France faces a unique political paralysis: no parliamentary elections can be called until July due to constitutional constraints. This political gridlock, unprecedented in the Fifth Republic’s history, leaves the nation adrift and set for unknown.

The roots of the crisis date back to the snap elections called after European elections in June, after which President Emmanuel Macron waited for two months to appoint Michel Barnier—a seasoned Brexit negotiator—to lead a minority government. Barnier’s administration of Democrats, Horizon, En Marche and the Republicans relied on tactical support from Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN). This controversial decision to pick up a prime minister from the party that ranked fifth in the elections enraged the left-leaning New Popular Front, the coalition that actually won the elections. Despite the lack of a parliamentary majority, Barnier managed to survive politically, offering concessions to the far-right RN and striking a fragile truce.

Barnier’s main challenge was drafting a budget to address France’s growing deficit, which reaches 6% of GDP, way above EU requirements sparking scrutiny actions of the Commission. His budget plan, marked by significant spending cuts and tax increases, appeased the EU and incorporated RN’s proposals—a major victory for Le Pen’s party. However, each concession only led to further demands. Barnier even contemplated an overhaul of France’s electoral system to favor RN, which currently underperforms due to the two-round voting process. With Le Pen under investigation for alleged misuse of European Parliament funds, her political ambitions have intensified. Polls suggest her base strongly supports Barnier’s downfall, making any further compromise unlikely to change her mind.

On Monday, Barnier invoked Article 49.3 of the French Constitution to bypass parliamentary approval of the budget. This maneuver, also employed during Macron’s contentious pension reforms, exposes the government to a vote of no confidence. This time, the gamble failed. The rejection of the budget forces France to operate under last year’s fiscal plan, exacerbating its deficit and threatening the stability of the eurozone. French 10-year bonds were already trading at levels of those of Greece, raising fears of a continent-wide crisis reminiscent of the last eurozone debt meltdown.

Macron is now tasked with appointing a new prime minister who can lead a minority government with tactical opposition support. However, with the National Assembly split almost equally into three blocks, a sustainable solution seems improbable. Resignation of Macron might be some option but he is unwilling to do so. The French Constitution requires a two-thirds majority in both chambers of parliament to formally dismiss him—a scenario reserved for extraordinary circumstances, still unlikely but increasingly discussed. Even Jean-François Copé of Les Républicains, part of the minority coalition, has suggested Macron’s resignation as the only viable way to end the crisis and initiate a democratic reset. Macron also retains theoretical constitutional powers to assume near-dictatorial control. He could invoke it for a brief moment to enable himself to push through a budget, and let a fragile new minority government drift until likely new elections in July. It would save eurozone finances but such a bold move risks igniting unprecedented social unrest, given the already fragile trust in his leadership.

Europe finds itself in a prolonged “lame duck” period, akin to the U.S. post-election transition phase, but with far greater stakes. With a new European Commission just beginning its term after June’s elections, upcoming Polish presidential elections, political turmoil in France, and Germany on the cusp of protracted coalition-building, Europe is without clear leadership at a time when it must defend its values and security. The ever-expanding polycrisis opens yet new fronts and demands resilience from European institutions to weather the storm ahead.

This weekend, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump arrives in Paris to celebrate the reopening of Notre-Dame Cathedral attended also by 50 other world leaders. His election marks a critical juncture for Europe, demanding unity and resolve in addressing arrangements that will shape the continent’s security for years to come. Trump’s plans for Ukraine will require substantial contributions from Europe, including increased spending on military aid and the possibility of a peacekeeping mission. However, no European leader currently seems to hold the political capital or credibility needed to engage Trump effectively and support the weight of their commitments in such negotiations. 

Author: Tomasz Obremski, Advocacy and Analysis Specialist at Casimir Pulaski Foundation