Author: Rafał Lipka & Sebastian Czub

Si vis pacem, para bellum — The Casimir Pulaski Foundation publishes a report on the transformation of the Polish Armed Forces based on a wargame simulation

Poland is not currently prepared for a full-scale war, and only a consistent, long-term approach to technical modernization, the transformation of the Polish Armed Forces, and the expansion of the defense industry can strengthen the country’s defensive capabilities in the 5-10 year perspective. These are the conclusions of the latest report by the Casimir Pulaski Foundation titled Si vis pacem, para bellum: Transformation of the Polish Army in the Face of Future Threats, based on a wargame simulation organized with the support of the American RAND Corporation.

The report was officially presented on October 2, 2024, during the 11th edition of the Warsaw Security Forum. The presentation was attended by, among others, General Dariusz Łukowski, Deputy Head of the National Security Bureau, former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe General Tod D. Wolters, as well as representatives of the Armed Forces of Poland and other allied nations, and RAND Corporation.

According to the report, Poland should continue with the previously established assumptions regarding the transformation of the Polish Army, prioritizing the technical modernization of the Land Forces and the development of an integrated air and missile defense system, without neglecting the need to strengthen the potential of the Air Force and the Navy. Given the scale of the needs and expenditures required to secure the implementation of technical modernization programs, Poland must act systematically. It is necessary not only to increase the number of troops in the Armed Forces and acquire the appropriate capabilities and equipment reserves through defense procurement, but also to expand domestic industrial capabilities for the production of weapons and ammunition and ensure the maintenance of modern equipment for the next 30-40 years. Military spending should therefore be treated as an investment in Poland’s security, while also considering the economic interests and industrial development of the country through the transfer of specific technologies to the Polish defense industry. However, this will not be possible without a strategy for the development of Poland’s defense industry and full support and cooperation between all political options — Poland’s security and defense require consistent, long-term actions and, for this reason, cannot be subject to political rivalry.

The Casimir Pulaski Foundation’s report also emphasizes the need to significantly strengthen Poland’s electronic warfare and anti-UAS capabilities, as well as modernize the Armed Forces in other areas, such as imagery and radar reconnaissance, without which the effective use of the newly-procured modern weaponry will not be possible. Other issues also require particular attention, such as the organization of the command system, the implementation of the “East Shield” program, the development of the Territorial Defense Forces structures and capabilities, as well as a comprehensive approach to national security and civil defense.

The preparation of the report involved, among others, General Andrzej Fałkowski, General Jerzy Michałowski, and Brigadier General Tomasz Drewniak. The report was based on a security simulation of NATO’s eastern flank conducted by the Casimir Pulaski Foundation and the RAND Corporation in June 2024, attended by the Head of the National Security Bureau Jacek Siewiera, representatives of the Polish General Staff, former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe General Tod D. Wolters, General Joseph Guastella, and former Commander of US Army Europe General Ben Hodges.