Author: Krzysztof Kozłowski

Cheng Li-wun, Kuomintang’s (KMT – current Taiwanese opposition) leader, just concluded her April 7-12 visit to People’s Republic of China. As she put it, she was going on a “historic journey for peace” but admitted some Taiwanese felt uneasy about her visit. While she was meeting the PRC president, Xi Jinping, in the Great Hall of the People on April 10, the Taiwanese government informed about Chinese warplanes flying near the island. It was only the second meeting of Communist Party of China (CPC) and KMT leaders in history and it takes place in times of growing tensions in the Taiwan Strait. What does the visit mean for Cross-Strait relations as well as allies of both Taiwan and PRC?

First and foremost, the visit shows how narrowed-down the discussion about Taiwan became and how dangerous the consequences might be. People’s Liberation Army maneuvers around Taiwan and intrusions into the Taiwanese air defense identification zone became topic of majority of comments concerning the Island in European discussions on East Asia. Majority, because if not mentioned as the place where potential conflict between US and PRC may begin, its role in semiconductor industry makes it perceived as a heart of the technological chain of production and American – Chinese competition in a race for technological dominance. Ever since Taiwan made it to the cover of the Economist as the most dangerous place on Earth almost only other comments about the island concern its role in semiconductor sector. And that’s very far from what the Island truly is.

Even if one limits analysis only to ongoing politics, the path that Taiwan took over the last 40 years is remarkable. It moved from the martial law reality at the beginning of the Eighties of the last century, through the political transformation concluded in the Nineties, to a vibrant democracy today. The best proof of democratic resilience of the Taiwanese society was the Sunflower Movement in 2014 opposing the violations of the constitution by introducing ECFA – Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement between Taipei and Beijing, without moving it through the Taiwanese parliament – the Legislative Yuan. While in many places in Europe democracy had been challenged despite social discontent, over one month long Taiwanese popular protests turned out to be successful. 

Regardless of that, the internal Taiwanese political developments rarely reach the headlines despite of being crucial for the future of the Island. And while they are fascinating for political scientists, they should be a headache for politicians. Let’s shortly discuss only the two major parties stances here. The ruling Democratic Progressive Party under current Taiwanese president Lai Ching-te, together with so-called Green coalition of political allies, while originating from prodemocratic opposition under the martial law, continues governing for the last decade. While internationally its framed as a pro-independence Taiwanese party, in internal Taiwanese affairs it had to deal with the challenge of Pandemic, energy shortages,

dependence on business investment in Mainland China and raising consumer prices. The major opposition – Kuomintang – a leader of the so-called Pan-Blue Camp or coalition parties, despite originating from Chiang Kai-shek, today is perceived as more open to talks with PRC. While KMT history, especially during the Martial Law, is complex, it was the dominant ruling political party in first two decades of democratic Taiwan. And of course, these are not the only political forces in the Island.

The major problem that KMT leader visit to Mainland China should signal is that even the superficial level of details concerning Taiwanese internal politics presented above rarely reaches the international headlines concerning the Island. An average European or American reader may easily get the picture of Taiwan being a pawn on the chess board between PRC and U.S. in strategic or technological terms. What remains a challenge is the fact, that for average Taiwanese citizen, while Chinese maneuvers and Trump second term are important variables, they are both not the most pressing issues shaping her or his political views. The same concerns political actors in the Island. DPP, after Tsai Ing-Wen became president win in 2016 needed a quick course in turning from opposition to a governing party under extremely challenging circumstances of not only Chinese pressure but energy transition and economic change. KMT, on the other hand, needed to learn from a new experience of parliamentary and presidential defeat how to address the needs of its still existing electorate. And both parties seem to have done the homework. While DPP holds a coalition government, KMT is the largest political party in Legislative Yuan. While DPP forms political program in a spectrum between political symbolism and pragmatic substance of tough choices, KMT depends on a complex patchwork of local-government support. 

While the great power politics may be more important than in other parts of the world, the local political reality might be the decisive factor in the Taiwanese future. While the political World if asked about the Taiwanese future it looks toward Beijing and Washington, the Taiwanese politicians prepare for November local-government elections. In 2014, these were the first elections to be lost by then ruling KMT and the first electoral signal of future political change in Taiwan’s parliament and presidential office. And Cheng Li-wun, as a KMT leader, knows what’s at stake in 2026 and she can’t afford a loss. PRC also took a note. Following a visit by the island’s opposition ‌leader who came to Beijing, as she put it, with a “peace” mission, Beijing has released a unilateral 10 new incentive measures for Taiwan, including easing limitations on tourism, allowing “healthy” Taiwanese television ​dramas and facilitating food sales. The problem what PRC sees, Europe does not. What may sound as a paradox, China understands that while the international status of the Island is frozen by a stand-off between Washington and Beijing, the future of the Taiwanese people is in their hands, and does a lot to bend them to the Mainland’s liking. The question is who else will take a note.

Sources:

1.  Reuters, Taiwan opposition chief arrives for China ‘peace’ mission, president calls for talks,  https://www.reuters.com/world/china/taiwan-opposition-chief-leaves-china-peace-mission-minister-details-warship-2026-04-07/.
2. Reuters, Taiwan spotted Chinese warplanes as Xi met opposition leader in Beijing, https://www.reuters.com/world/china/taiwan-spotted-chinese-warplanes-xi-met-opposition-leader-beijing-2026-04-11/.
3.  The Economist, The most dangerous place on Earth: America and China must work harder to avoid war over the future of Taiwan, https://www.economist.com/leaders/2021/05/01/the-most-dangerous-place-on-earth.
4. Reuters, China offers incentives to Taiwan following opposition leader’s visit, https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-offers-incentives-taiwan-following-opposition-leaders-visit-2026-04-12/.