White Paper: Strategic Communication in Poland’s Energy Sector

White Paper: Strategic Communication in Poland’s Energy Sector

The White Paper is the final part of “Energy security and effective strategic communication the civil and governmental actors: V4+Ukraine” project carried out in cooperation with International Visegrad Fund and partner organizations from V4 states and Ukraine: Research Center of the Slovak Foreign Policy Association from Slovakia, Centre for Global Studies “Strategy XXI” from Ukraine, KNO Česko, spol. s r.o. from Czech Republic, and Center for Fair Political Analysis from Hungary.”

The Polish energy sector – as the ones of its neighbours – is depending on fossil fuels, such as hard coal, lignite, crude oil, natural gas, and others. The market is dominated by the hard coal and is likely to remain so, with natural gas only on the fourth place in regard to demand. While the first two categories are mainly covered by the domestic production, crude oil and natural gas are mainly imported on demand-based basis.

1. Energy Sector in Ukraine – Overview

The Polish energy sector – as the ones of its neighbours – is depending on fossil fuels, such as hard coal, lignite, crude oil, natural gas, and others. The market is dominated by the hard coal and is likely to remain so, with natural gas only on the fourth place in regard to demand. While the first two categories are mainly covered by the domestic production, crude oil and natural gas are mainly imported on demand-based basis.

Source: Poland’s Main Statistical Office (GUS)

The demand and share of natural gas in the energy productions is rising in the recent years, from 5,6% in 2017 to 7,2% in 2018. The decrease in demand for the lignite is mainly a result of closing some of the non-efficient coal plants in Poland, most of which were erected in Poland in years 1960-1980. Due to new health and environment regulations imposed by the European Union, some of the Polish energy production plants are closing down, reducing the demand for coal.

Source: Energy transition in Poland. Edition 2019 - full report in English by Forum Energii

The demand for natural gas as the energy source is dominated by the industrial sector (52,1%), with next two notable sectors being households (21,1%), and power and heating sector (15,7%).1 Majority of the natural gas consumption is covered by high-metane imported to Poland (nearly 15 billion m3) with only 1,5 billion m3 covered by high-metane domestic production.2 The current foreign supply of natural gas is shifting towards diversification of the sources, suppliers from the East dominating the market with more than 50% of share (57,5% in 2016 and 51,8% in 2017). There is a significant growth in the role that Qatar is playing in the market share (from 5,5 % in 2016 to 7,9% in 2017) and increasing perspectives of the United States playing a significant role in supplying LNG gas via Świnoujście LNG terminal with first shipment delivered in early 2019.

Source: Energy transition in Poland. Edition 2019 - full report in English by Forum Energii

The electrical power generation system is the largest one in Central and Eastern Europe with the capacity of 42 GW installed and supplied in 80% by the mainly Polish suppliers of hard and brown coal. The growing role of the natural gas as the source of energy is resulting in increasing import of the resources. At the same time, there is a growing consumption of electric energy that the domestic production can’t fully cover. Within the last two years, the demand has outgrown the production by 5,7 TWh. At the same time, more than 13 TWh is being lost in transition through the power grid, according to the Ministry of Energy.3 The demand of supply is predicted to grow up to 217,4 TWh in 2030 which is a growth of more than 25% in 11 years.4

Source: Energy transition in Poland. Edition 2019 - full report in English by Forum Energii

The main distribution companies in Poland are Tauron Dystrybucja SA, PGE Dystrybucja SA, Enea Operator Sp. z o.o ., innogy Stoen Operator Sp. z o.o., and Energa-Operator SA, with majority of households supplied by Tauron (5,5 million recipients) and PGE Dystrybucja (5,3 million recipients). 5 The company delivering the most volume of natural gas to Poland remains Gazprom which in 2018 sold Poland 9,04 billion m3 with imports from Norway, Qatar, and the US in LNG summing up to 2,71 billion m3 after regasification.

Overall strategic communication

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Hungary

Czech Republic

Slovakia

Ukraine

Poland

How many persons were invited?

How many p e r s o n s w e r e innterviewed

?

How many p e r s o n s refused in interview?

How many invitation are w i t h o u t reply?

10 persons were invited, 4 persons were interviewed, 3 persons refused, 3 invitations are without reply.

10 persons were invited,

3 p e r s o n s w e r e interviewed, 5 p e r s o n s refused, 2 invitations are without reply

8 persons were invited, 2 persons were interviewed, 3 persons refused, 3 invitations are without reply

11 persons were invited, 5 persons were interviewed, 4 persons refused and 2 invitation are without reply.

14 persons were invited, 6 persons were interviewed, 2 persons refused to take part in deep interview, 6 invitations are

without reply

Responsibilit y for energy security

Ministries and regulator were stressed by all respondents. Traders - 2 respondents TSO - 1

respondent

Government/ State

State and company EUSTREAM

and SPP

State bodies:

M i n i s t r y o f Energy and Coal Industry of Ukraine Institute of the President

M i n i s t r y o f F o r e i g n A f f a i r s o f U k r a i n e N a t i o n a l Security and D e f e n c e Council of Ukraine

State and business companies, especially PGNiG





M i n i s t r y o f E c o n o m i c Development of Ukraine M i n i s t r y o f I n t e r n a l A f f a i r s N a t i o n a l Commission f o r S t a t e Regulation in the energy and utilities A n t i - M o n o p o l y Committee of Ukraine


The role of energy reports and analyses

Important - 3 respondents and non important - 1 respondent


What read: Winter outlook, Globsec, ACER, oficial reports

All respondents said we have enough reports. Some papers are more scientists but ought to be more practical

MoE SR

reads mostly official papers;


Whar read: Energy Hub Service, Monitoring from MFA, International media, EU analysis, ENTSOG-

winter outlook, Plan for infrastructure development

Mostly official documents

Q u a l i t y o f the analysis

– t h e y a r e g e n e r a l , statistical, not concentrated o n e n e r g y s e c u r i t y details.

Q u a l i t y o f f o r e i g n analytical materials on e n e r g y s e c u r i t y i s better than of Ukrainian ones.

The state institutions don’t take into a c c o u n t analytical r e p o r t s o f think tanks.

What read : E u r o p e a n Institutions, International E n e r g y A g e n c y , N a t i o n a l r e g u l a t o r s a n d operators, Foreign think tanks (Atlantic C o u n c i l , C e n t e r f o r Strategic and International S t u d i e s ( U S A ) ,

B r o o k i n g s

Institution, ( U S A ) ,

C a r n e g i e Institution for S c i e n c e (USA), Oxford Institute for Energy Study ( G B ) ,

Ukrainian think tanks.

Lacks: Methodology of research papers;

A lot about h i s t o r y o f problem but there isn’t any forecast

ü N o information about sources and statistics; Conclusions a r e v e r y g e n e r a l formulated; L a t e analytics; Local focus, l a c k o f a r e g i o n a l approach;

Long

research, more than 5 pages


What read : OSW, PISM,

Pulaski Policy P a p e r s , o f f i c i a l r a p o r t s . G l o b a l - B r u e g e l , BBC, Oxford U n i v e r c i t y p a p e r s . A m e r i c a n a n a l i t i c s - very seldom





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1 Polskie Górnictwo Naftowe i Gazownictwo SA, March 2018.
2 https://forum-energii.eu/en/polska-transformacja-energetyczna
3 „Raport o energetyce”, Fundacja Przyjazny Kraj.

4 Ibidem.
5 https://rynek-energii-elektrycznej.cire.pl/st,33,201,tr,69,0,0,0,0,0,osd.html