Author: Casimir Pulaski Foundation

Spoiled NATO’s birthday party

Last week, NATO celebrated its 75th anniversary. For the first time, the Washington treaty travelled across the Atlantic and was presented at NATO’s headquarters in Brussels. Indeed, its age is impressive and worth a toast. However, there is no time for celebration. NATO’s 75th birthday unfolds against the grim backdrop of Ukraine’s ongoing suffering due to Russian shelling, with Kyiv facing a dwindling supply of defence weapons. This situation has prompted President Zelenskyy to issue his most dire warning yet: his country “will lose the war” if the US aid package is not approved.^[1]

Although the main event of the year will be the commemorative summit in Washington in July, the last ministerial summit has already given a hint of announcements that can be expected. First, by July, NATO is expected to take over from the USA the coordination of the Ukraine Defence Contact Group, bringing together 32 members and 21 like-minded countries. The move is considered a hedging act against the possible election of Donald Trump and his withdrawal from the group.

Secondly, with the 60 billion USD package still gridlocked in the US Congress, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who will soon leave office, proposed a 5-year-long 100 billion EUR package raised on a solidarity basis by all member states, with share based on national income, same as NATO budget. The proposal is very ambitious and could go down as Stoltenberg’s legacy, but it raises doubts among NATO allies. Hadja Lahbib, Belgium’s foreign minister, warned: some leaders are cautioning that this might be a promise the allies will not be able to meet. Others are unsure if this is supposed to be completely new money, which would be hard to raise, or if this is an umbrella for existing schemes, gathering the effort under the NATO brand. More Europe-oriented diplomats are worried about marginalising EU defence ambitions.^[2] Overall reactions indicate that the plan has not been widely consulted. Nevertheless, the situation deteriorates rapidly, so not everything can be discussed in advance, and the alliance needs to act fast.

Thirdly, so far, no breakthrough has been expected in Ukraine’s membership in NATO. Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba was invited to the summit, but Western leaders did not tell him anything that had not been said before. It was repeated that doors to the alliance for Kyiv remain open, but a path to this door is still undefined. Meanwhile, the time to define it is running out.

Following the summit, British Foreign Secretary James Cameron travelled to Washington to push Republicans to vote on the Ukraine aid bill. He met privately in Florida with Donald Trump, arguing that all members will finally reach 2% spending by the time of the Washington summit in July and that helping Ukraine is in the US interest. However, he failed to meet Speaker Johnson, which he had been hoping to do, and it seems Cameron’s transatlantic endeavour was rather unsuccessful.^[3]

 

Slovakia’s Presidential Election

On the 6th April, Slovakia’s elections solidified the country’s path toward Euroscepticism, diverging from EU integration and principles.^[4] Nationalist-left government candidate Peter Pellegrini defeated pro-Western opposition candidate Ivan Korčok with 53.26 percent of the vote (versus Korčok’s 46.73 percent).^[5] Pelligrini’s win solidifies the nationalist parties’ coalition’s hold on the premiership and presidency, giving Prime Minister Fico more power-wielding tools to enforce his rule.

 

How to Win? Fear and a Few Cash Bonuses

With Fico’s support, Pellegrini ran a campaign that antagonised Korčok’s pro-western alignment. Pellegrini positioned himself as the peace-promoting candidate, vowing to keep Slovakia out of the war in Ukraine. A common narrative that has helped Slovakia’s nationalist Social Democracy party (SMER) is that the EU and its supporters will drag Slovakia into the war in Ukraine. This kind of fear-inducing narrative was used by Pelligrini after Korčok won the first of two election rounds. Two days after Korčok’s win, PM Fico used his platform to call Korčok “a warmonger who unhesitatingly supports everything the West tells him, including dragging Slovakia into war.”^[6] Simultaneously, Pelligrini positioned himself as Slovakia’s only shield against being “dragged” into war.^[7]

In addition to the narrative, which has appealed to voters in Slovakia, Fico’s government used financial incentives to boost his political ally Pellegrini’s likability ahead of the runoff. Four days after Pellegrini’s defeat in round one, Minister of Social Affairs Erik Tomáš warned seniors and at-risk groups “will lose all your social benefits.”^[8] He then threw in some cash incentives, announcing a one-time EUR 300 pension payment and EUR 600 Christmas bonus to “compensate” for the previous 2020-2023 government’s (which was SMER’s opposition) inability to increase pensions during the COVID-19 pandemic. From there, more cash prizes flowed with the defence minister announcing that approximately 20,000 soldiers and ministry employees will receive a EUR 500 Spring bonus and the interior minister declaring that about 24,000 police and firefighters would receive a EUR 500 bonus from the government.

 

What Powers does this Give the Nationalist Coalition? 

Pelligrini announced that as president he will support the current government’s agenda, a move giving PM Fico access to the head of state’s tool box.^[9] Though the Slovak presidency has limited powers, the president can appoint ambassadors, return legislation to the parliament, and issue amnesties. Pellgrini and Fico are long-time allies, making it likely that Pellegrini’s new powers will also belong to Fico, whose anti-democratic actions have come under scrutiny since his reelection in 2023.^[10]

Author: Casimir Pulaski Foundation’s team

 

Sources:

^[1] Christian Edwards and Maria Kostenko, Ukraine ‘will lose the war’ if US fails to approve aid, says Zelensky, CNN World, 08.03.2024, https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/08/europe/ukraine-lose-war-us-congress-zelensky-intl/index.html

^[2] Stuart Lau and Aitor Hernandez-Morales, NATO ministers’ doubts, fears and eye-rolls over €100B Ukraine plan, POLITICO, 03.04.2024, https://www.politico.eu/article/nato-foreign-ministers-doubts-fears-eye-rolls-e100b-ukraine-plan/

^[3] Patrick Wintour, David Cameron seemingly fails in bid to persuade Trump on Ukraine aid, The Guardian, 09.04.2024, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/apr/09/david-cameron-trump-ukraine-aid

^[4]  Patrik Martinek and Emma Nix, “Your primer on Slovakia’s Presidential Election,” The Atlantic Council, April 3, 2024, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/eye-on-europes-elections/your-primer-on-slovakias-presidential-election/.

^[5] Radovan Stoklasa and Jan Lopatka, “Pellegrini wins Slovak presidential election in boost for pro-Russian PM Fico,” Reuters, April 7, 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/government-backed-pellegrini-takes-lead-slovak-presidential-election-2024-04-06/.

^[6] Tom Nicholson, “Slovak presidency goes to PM Fico’s proxy,” POLITICO, APRIL 6, 2024, https://www.politico.eu/article/slovak-presidential-election-second-round/.

^[7] Patrik Martinek and Emma Nix, “Your primer on Slovakia’s Presidential Election,” The Atlantic Council, April 3, 2024, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/eye-on-europes-elections/your-primer-on-slovakias-presidential-election/.

^[8] Tom Nicholson, “Slovak presidency goes to PM Fico’s proxy,” POLITICO, APRIL 6, 2024, https://www.politico.eu/article/slovak-presidential-election-second-round/.

^[9]  Radovan Stoklasa and Jan Lopatka, “Pellegrini wins Slovak presidential election in boost for pro-Russian PM Fico,” Reuters, April 7, 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/government-backed-pellegrini-takes-lead-slovak-presidential-election-2024-04-06/.

^[10] Tom Nicholson, “With threats to judges and journalists, Slovakia spirals eastward,” POLITICO, April 4, 2024, https://www.politico.eu/article/threat-judge-journalist-slovakia-spiral-eastward-robert-fico/.