Autor: Jakub Wilczyński

Following the publication of U.S. and Ukraine-Europe’s proposed frameworks for resolving the Russia–Ukraine conflict in April 2025, and under pressure from Washington on both Kyiv and Moscow, the two sides agreed to launch direct negotiations in Istanbul on 15 May.

Ahead of the talks, President Vladimir Putin publicly stated that Russia was ready to resume direct negotiations with Ukraine—suspended in 2022—without any preconditions. At the same time, Presidential Aide for Foreign Policy Yuri Ushakov disavowed his boss’ words and emphasized that the renewed Istanbul talks should consider both the outcomes of the previous negotiation round (2022) and the current situation “on the ground.”

On 2 June, during the second round of renewed Istanbul talks, Russia submitted a Memorandum in response to Ukraine’s proposed framework for negotiations. This document largely replicates, albeit in a more condensed form, the core demands articulated in the March–April 2022 Draft Treaty on the Permanent Neutrality and Security Guarantees of Ukraine. The 2025 Memorandum aims to enshrine Russia’s strategic goals from the so-called special military operation against Ukraine: demilitarisation, denazification, legal recognition of territorial gains, Ukraine’s permanent neutrality and non-nuclear status, influence over Ukraine’s domestic affairs, and guarantees of Russian language, political, and ideological control. It is completely opposite to Ukraine’s framework, although this fact is recognized by the Kremlin.

The Russian Memorandum consists of three sections referencing each other, making the text rather convoluted. The main parameters of a final settlement—i.e., Russia’s demands towards Ukraine and the international community—are formulated in Section 1. A comparative analysis of the 2025 Memorandum and 2022 Draft Treaty could give clues to understanding Russian real demands.

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