Foreign Policy Publications

Nov
05

REPORT: Balance Sheet of U.S. Allies and Implication for Alliance Policy

According to the National Security Strategy (NSS) of the Trump administration published in December 2017, today’s world is getting more competitive. The US and its allies are facing growing political, economic, and military competitions around the world. Two revisionist states, China and Russia, are challenging US prosperity and superiority as well as the liberal international order. The NSS also pointed out that strong relationships with allies are invaluable in order for the US to magnify its power and respond to the growing political, economic, and military competitions. As shown in the NSS, US allies in Asia and Europe are facing similar threats, namely, the emergences of two revisionist states. The […]

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Apr
25

GPF WEEKLY: A History of Fake News

There is nothing new in lying to the public By George Friedman The term “fake news” entered American political discourse during the 2016 election with both Democrats and Republicans charging each other and the media with generating fake news. Ever since, there have been countless stories about how public opinions are manipulated for political gain. Last month, it was revealed that a consulting firm called Cambridge Analytica acquired Facebook user data and used it to try to influence voters in the run-up to the election. This week, lawmakers in Malaysia approved a law making it a crime to spread fake news, punishable by up to six years in prison. Fake […]
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Apr
09

GPF WEEKLY: The middle of an Era

Only now is the full power of what started in 2008 being felt. I have written in several places about a paradox. On the one hand, if you take a snapshot of the world every 20 years or so, the reality of how the world works and what matters will have shifted dramatically compared with the previous snapshot. On the other hand, at any point in time there is a general belief that the world as it is at this moment will remain in place for a long time. It is not just the public but also experts and those who govern who tend to fail to see how transitory […]
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Feb
05

ANALYSIS: 2018 – the year when Macedonia naming dispute is resolved?

Pulaski Policy Paper No 4, 2018. 5th February 2018 r. In early 2018, both the Greek and Macedonian governments have signalled their commitment to bring a swift resolution to the over 20 yearlong quarrel between these two states, regarding the naming of the state of Macedonia. Macedonian Prime Minister Zoran Zaev has stated, that the dispute may be resolved in the first half of 2018. The Greek-Macedonian crisis has been going on since 1991, when Macedonia declared independence in the aftermath of the dissolution of the SFR Yugoslavia. Soon after Greece has protested naming of the recently created state as Macedonia. Greece considers this name to be a part of […]

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Dec
29

COMMENTARY: „America First” – the new US National Security Strategy

December 29, 2017 On December 18th 2017 President Donald Trump unveiled the new National Security Strategy of the United States. The Strategy emphasized the threats and challenges stemming from China, Russia, Iran and North Korea. Although the document declares primacy of US interests, it also stresses the necessity of cooperation with America’s allies. What is a National Security Strategy? The Goldwater-Nichols Act of 1986 obligated the executive branch to periodically deliver a National Security Strategy (NSS) to the US Congress. It is one of the most important documents, which presents threats and challenges to US security and necessary remedial actions to eliminate them or reduce their impact. While the importance […]

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Aug
23

ANALYSIS: The Middle East after the fall of the Islamic State core in the Levant

The liberation of the Iraqi city of Mosul at the beginning of July 2017, after more than nine months of bloody battles, as well as the probable occupation of the Syrian city of Ar-Raqqa, the self-proclaimed capital of the caliphate, raises questions about the future of the parastate brought to life by the so-called Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and the geopolitical shape of the Middle East after the fall of ISIS in the Levant. There are also questions about what the liquidation of the caliphate’s headquarters (established on the areas of Iraq and Syria conquered in 2013-2015) will mean, and whether the geopolitical situation in the heart […]

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Jul
20

ANALYSIS: Macedonia With a New Government – The End of the Crisis

After nearly six months since the parliamentary elections on the 11th of December 2016, Macedonians have a new government led by Zoran Zaev, the leader of the largest opposition party. He succeeded in forming the government after reaching a coalition agreement with the Albanian political party, and the Democratic Union for Integration (BDI), which had thus far been partnering the VMRO-DPMNE (the Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization-Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity), the group that had governed Macedonia uninterruptedly since 2006. However, the new government has many challenges to face moving forward, with reunifying their fragmented society being one of the most difficult and important tasks. The creation of a new governing […]

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May
24

Iran stays on course – Rouhani is still the president

Hassan Rouhani’s victory in the first round of presidential elections in Iran (May 19, 2017), with 57.1 per cent of votes, gives him a strong mandate to continue his work for another four years. The Conservative Ebrahim Raisi (38.3 per cent) also achieved a good result, but with so much support for Rouhani, it was not enough to make it through to the second round. The electorate endorsed the current president’s success in coming to an agreement with the Six Powers regarding the Iran’s nuclear program, and the opening up of the country to the world. The electoral mobilization of the Iranians and long queues for ballot boxes undoubtedly deserve […]

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