Author: Olga Jastrzębska

Introduction

The June 24, 2023 coup by Y. Prigozhin and the march of the Wagner group to Moscow put into question the support for President Putin both in the army structures and among Russian citizens. In the streets of the cities occupied by the Wagnerians, ordinary Russian people showed their support. The Russian army has split into two camps, one supporting the president and defence minister, and the other supporting the Wagner Group. Although the leader of this group has been neutralized for the time being and sent to Belarus, the consequences of his rebellion may be very severe for Putin’s power.

Description and brief analysis

Prigozhin’s coup made Putin question the loyalty and allegiance of his allies, especially those in the army structures. The response to this threat, according to recent reports, are purges carried out in the structures of the army, affecting military personnel suspected of sympathizing with the leader of the Wagner Group. Their first victim was “General Armageddon” – S. Surovikin, who had good contacts with Prigozhin. He was to support the Wagner Group during the march to Moscow. The general is currently being interrogated and no one knows where he is now.[i] He was supposed to know about the plans of the Wagnerian rebellion.[ii] British intelligence reports the disappearance of another general: Y. Evkourov, serving as Deputy Minister of Defence.[iii] Further arrests within the army and a further fight between the Putin-Shoigu faction and the faction supporting the Wagnerians cannot be ruled out. The first of them starts to eliminate the second, but it is not said that it will not weaken in the future. The coup showed that Putin’s power rests on very fragile foundations.

According to the Polish minister and secret services coordinator, S. Żaryn, the coup ridiculed Putin.[iv] The inhabitants of the captured cities (Rostov-on-Don and Voronezh) cheered the Wagnerians, and the Russian army did nothing to prevent the capture of these cities. Is our military really so powerful if there was no resistance from the regular army during the Wagnerians march? This question can be asked by the average Russian. Putin and his closest associates – Defence Minister S. Shoigu, and the Chief of the General Staff, V. Gerasimov, became convinced that there exists a faction within the army ready to act against the president. According to many sources, the “March of Justice” of the Wagnerians was aimed at preventing the liquidation of this mercenary group and its inclusion in the structures of the regular army. This was proof that President Putin no longer controls the activities of Prigozhin’s faction. And that means he may soon lose control of the actions of the group that supports him.

​A factor that may lead to this are the purges that are just beginning in the army. According to Putin’s intention, they are intended to purge the army of Prigozhin’s faction, but they may in fact spark another rebellion. First of all, the Federal Security Service (FSB) will start to play a huge role in Putin’s entourage. The information provided by the head of Ukrainian intelligence, K. Budanov, may prove their increased role. He informed about an order to kill Prigozhin, which is to be carried out by the FSB.[v] Security service will begin to exercise more and more supervision over the army, including being the most important element in the purge process. It was the FSB that was supposed to conduct the investigation against the Wagnerians, which was ultimately discontinued.[vi] And it will be the most important body in terms of eliminating more people from Putin’s entourage. Over time, the purges may intensify, which may lead to the elimination of people who are even closest to president Putin, like Shoigu and Gerasimov. They too may be suspected of disloyalty, which is not impossible in an atmosphere of increasing suspicion and fear. And such a situation can contribute to the defeat of the president’s power in three ways. Firstly, repeating the scenario from the late 1930s, i.e. cutting out the most important people from the officer cadre, may significantly weaken the Russian army at the front. As a result of the continuous military support for Ukraine from Western countries and the ongoing counter-offensive, the Russian army, deprived of command, may suffer defeats. As a consequence, it will have to withdraw from the occupied areas and even cease further hostilities, what will be the biggest Putin failure. Secondly, the increasing control of the FSB over the army may lead to an outbreak of rebellion even among units operating at the front, which will be fed up with constant pressure, control and elimination of officers suspected of “disloyalty”. A second march on Moscow, this time organized by the army, is not excluded. The rebellion may also be started by the president’s closest circle, i.e. mentioned before Gerasimov and Shoigu. Fearing for their lives, by focusing on them more and more responsibility and surveillance by the FSB, they can disobey and stage a coup d’état and set up something like a military junta.

The purges after Prigozhin’s coup may also contribute to a threat to Putin’s power in other way, related to the third scenario cited above The factions existing in his immediate vicinity (those operating in the army are the most visible) may already start fighting each other in an atmosphere of mutual suspicion and denunciations. Currently, the most serious accusation against high-ranking members of uniformed formations and officials (e.g. oblast governors) in Russia is the lack of support for Putin during the coup. Within the groups fighting each other, there may be a fraction that will decide that the best way to restore peace and strengthen power in Russia will be to eliminate Putin – the man who is responsible for the entire atmosphere of fear. In addition, in his speech on the day of the coup, Prigozhin said aloud something, which many Russians are afraid to say: that the war in Ukraine is a senseless affair. This may embolden others from the president’s entourage to at least veiled criticism.

Conclusions

The leader of the Wagner Group, through his rebellion, exposed the weakness of the Russian state and Putin’s power itself, based on the apparent loyalty of people around him. If there is a threat of a serious violation of the interests of their most important members, they may cease to act as executors of the president’s will, as the example of Prigozhin showed. In the coming months, Russia and its president will try to maintain the image of a strong state that has dealt with the coup, but this will be done at the cost of further dividing the circles centred around Putin and the army. It will be shared by removing more people associated with or suspected of supporting the Wagner Group. The rise of the president’s autocratic power may ultimately backfire on him. Not infrequently, as a result of omnipresent repression, a dictator is overthrown by his closest entourage. Putin’s consolidation of power may be extremely short-lived, while Russia, due to constant tensions and fights at the top of power, may not be prepared to fight as part of the Ukrainian counter-offensive. As a consequence, the conflict may end in a defeat or an armistice sooner than we think.

Author: Olga Jastrzębska

[i] “Zniknął “generał Armagedon”. “W Rosji trwa likwidacja śladów po Prigożynie””, Onet, July 4, 2023, https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/swiat/zniknal-general-armagedon-w-rosji-trwa-likwidacja-sladow-po-prigozynie/k36m1qy

[ii] P. Auguff „Surowikin wiedział o planach Prigożyna? Nowe informacje”, Dziennik, July 4, 2023, https://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/swiat/artykuly/8746304,surowikin-rosja-prigozyn-grupa-wagnera.html

[iii] P. Kozłowski „Bunt Prigożyna pogrąży nie tylko Surowikina? Brytyjski wywiad : generał Jewkurow zniknął”, Dziennik, July 5, 2023, https://wiadomosci.dziennik.pl/swiat/artykuly/8747053,bunt-prigozyna-pograzy-nie-tylko-surowikina-brytyjski-wywiad-general.html

[iv] „Bunt Prigożyna” może mieć piorunujące efekty. „Putin stchórzył i został ośmieszony”, Wprost, July 7, 2023, https://www.wprost.pl/swiat/11296342/bunt-prigozyna-moze-miec-piorunujace-efekty-putin-stchorzyl-i-zostal-osmieszony.html

[v] A. Zygiel „Prigożyn do likwidacji? FSB otrzymała specjalne zadanie”, Wiadomości Wirtualna Polska, June 30, 2023, https://wiadomosci.wp.pl/prigozyn-do-likwidacji-fsb-otrzymala-specjalne-zadanie-6914533152365280a

[vi] J. Lasota – Krawczyk „FSB: Postępowanie przeciwko Prigożynowi zostało umorzone”, RMF24, June 27, 2023, https://www.rmf24.pl/raporty/raport-wojna-z-rosja/news-fsb-postepowanie-przeciwko-prigozynowi-zostalo-umorzone,nId,6866829#crp_state=1