Autor: Bartłomiej Kot

The European Union’s (EU) Eastern policy is a multifaceted construct encompassing the Eastern Partnership (EaP), EU’s Russia policy, and elements of the enlargement strategy. This complexity reflects the intertwined goals of fostering stability, democracy, and economic alignment in Eastern Europe while addressing the direct and systemic threats posed by Russian aggression. The events of 2022-2024 period have necessitated a transformation of the EU’s approach, shifting its emphasis from normative influence to a geopolitical strategy prioritizing security and regional stability.

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 stands as a turning point for the EU’s Eastern policy. This aggression dismantled long-standing assumptions about the regional security order, compelling the EU to redefine its posture in Eastern Europe. The war has underscored the necessity of a robust security framework for the region, with the EU’s need to address destabilizing Russian activities through enhanced security alignment with Eastern European partners. Moreover, ensuring the security of EU member states is possible only if the Union establishes itself as the dominant actor in its immediate neighbourhood.

However, the internal divisions among Eastern Partnership countries, shaped by both domestic politics and Russian interference, pose significant challenges. The idea of the EaP must now transition from a normative agenda focused on reforms and governance to a geopolitical initiative aimed at stabilizing the region and countering Russian aggression. Where Russia acts as the primary destabiliser—whether through military activities or hybrid measures such as disinformation—the EU’s role must be to stabilise the region and counteract Russian actions.

Security has emerged as the preeminent concern in the EU’s Eastern policy. There is an urgent need to strengthen the security-focused offer for Eastern partners, encompassing military support, counter-disinformation efforts, and resilience against hybrid threats. This priority aligns with the vision articulated by the Polish Presidency in the EU Council in 2025. The recommendations to enhance this vision are also presented here by the author, who seeks to position Poland as a leader in the reshaped Eastern policy, with a clear focus on security and understanding of the geopolitical competition with Russia. Nevertheless, the danger lies in the tension between a Promethean vision of Eastern policy and Poland’s ability to influence decisions of Germany and France, which view the European project as requiring institutional reformulation.

This paper is structured into three sections: identifying key trends, analyzing challenges, and presenting actionable recommendations. By exploring these dimensions, it seeks to chart a course for an effective and cohesive EU strategy in Eastern Europe. It concludes with forward-looking recommendations designed to persist beyond the active phase of military operations in Ukraine, reflecting the enduring nature of systemic rivalry with Russia: For the author recognizes that the current open rivalry is systemic in nature and will persist as long as Russia views the EU as a threat to its sphere of influence.

Challenge 1: Division Among Eastern Partnership Countries Resulting from Internal Political Changes and Russia’s Negative and Aggressive Policies

Recommendation: Taking an Individualised Approach to Eastern European Candidates within the EU Enlargement Policy

Recommendation: Creating a Concrete Role in EU’s Eastern Policy for the European Political Community

Challenge 2: Changing the Perception of the Eastern Partnership’s Nature: From Normative Influence to Geopolitical Influence

Recommendation: The European Union Must Define Itself as a Geopolitical Actor that Provides Security to Partners in Eastern Europe

Challenge 3: The Priority of Security in European Eastern Policy

Recommendation: Strengthening the Security-Focused Offer for Eastern Partners

Recommendation: The EU’s Absorption Capacity Should Also Be Defined by Its Security

Challenge 4: Poland’s Ability to Influence the Enlargement Policies of Other States

Recommendation: Strengthening Poland’s Position as a Creator of European Policies

Recommendation: Clearly Defining Poland’s Goals Regarding the Resolution of the War in Ukraine and Incorporating them into EU’s Eastern Policy

Challenge 5: The Need to Shape a Long-Term Policy Toward Russia

Recommendation: Sustaining and Expanding Measures Targeting Russia

Recommendation: Formulating a New European Security Architecture Targeted at Russia

 

Public task financed by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland within the grant competition “Public Diplomacy 2024”

The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not reflect the views of the official positions of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland.