Autor: Casimir Pulaski Foundation and the Norwegian Institute for International Affairs

The second working paper of the NorPolFactor poject delves into the critical challenges and strategic responses of Norway and Poland to their shared proximity with Russia, a powerful and historically assertive neighbor. Highlighting geopolitical, military, historical, and economic dimensions, the study provides a comparative analysis of how the two nations navigate their unique but overlapping security landscapes in the context of Russian aggression, particularly after the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

For Norway, the Arctic border with Russia and the presence of Russia’s strategic Kola Peninsula military complex have shaped a careful balance between deterrence and reassurance. While Norway has relied on NATO’s collective defense framework, it has also pursued policies to avoid direct provocation, such as restrictions on allied military activities near its border. However, with the deterioration of relations following the events of 2014 and 2022, Norway has increased its defense spending, strengthened its military presence in the High North, and played a key role in European energy security, notably by supplying gas to Poland via the Baltic Pipe, which reduces dependence on Russian energy.

Poland, on the other hand, perceives Russia as a fundamental threat due to a history marked by invasions, partitions, and Soviet domination. The militarization of the Kaliningrad exclave and hybrid threats from Belarus further underscore this perception. In response, Poland has significantly modernized its military, increased defense spending to lead NATO benchmarks, and prioritized its eastern regions and the Suwałki Gap, a critical land corridor between Kaliningrad and Belarus. Poland has also become a staunch advocate for Ukraine, providing military and humanitarian aid while pushing for stringent EU sanctions against Russia.

The report underscores the importance of bilateral cooperation between Norway and Poland in reducing their strategic vulnerabilities. The Baltic Pipe exemplifies such collaboration, while further opportunities lie in renewable energy development, critical infrastructure protection, and military technology transfers. Both nations also face shared challenges from Russian hybrid tactics, including cyberattacks and disinformation. Enhanced cooperation in cybersecurity, intelligence sharing, and NATO-aligned strategies is essential to counter these threats effectively.

Looking ahead, the report highlights the need for Norway and Poland to continue diversifying energy sources, strengthening military deterrence, and building resilience to hybrid threats. By deepening bilateral ties and leveraging multilateral frameworks like NATO and the EU, both nations can better manage the challenges posed by Russia and enhance regional stability

The report part of joint project between Casimir Pulaski Foundation and Norwegian Institute for International Affairs. Read more on NorPolFactor on poject here.