Autor: Tomasz Otłowski

Pulaski Policy Paper no 1, 7th January 2025

The seizure of Damascus by Syrian rebels on December 8, 2024, and President Bashar al-Assad’s simultaneous escape from the country – mark the final end of the authoritarian rule of the Socialist Arab Renaissance Party (Baath), dating back to 1963. Nevertheless, the future of Syria is still undetermined and unknown. Will it be a country of relative (for the realities of the region) tolerance for many religious communities and ethnic groups inhabiting it? Or will the Islamic fundamentalist forces gain the upper hand in the new Syrian government, striving to transform Syria (or part of it) into an oppressive emirate?

Although surprisingly to many, the Syrian opposition’s offensive was not a coincidence or an improvisation. Already in 2023 the Syrian rebels began (probably with significant participation and assistance from the Turkish intelligence and military) preparations for an offensive operation against government forces, codenamed „Deterring Aggression”. The aim of the planned military action was to radically weaken the Syrian regime by capturing Aleppo, the main urban center in the north of the country. The maximum option for the rebels was to conquer the remaining large cities: Hama and Homs, and to try to capture the country’s capital, Damascus, which would mean the final collapse of the regime. The developments in and around Syria, which were favourable to the rebels (mostly the weakening of al-Assad’s allies: Russia, Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah), made it possible to implement the assumed plans in their broadest version. The strategy devised by the rebels worked perfectly, and as a result, the 13-year-long Syrian civil war ended in just 11 days.

Author: Tomasz Otłowski, Senior Fellow of the Casimir Pulaski Foundation

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