Autor: Casimir Pulaski Foundation

China-Hungary Pact Expands Beijing’s EU Security Access

Last week, China offered its public security support to Hungary during a rare meeting between Public Security Minister Wang Xiaohong and Prime Minister Orbán.^[1] This move expands the strategic partnership between China and Hungary, which previously focused solely on trade and investment. Their new security pact will allow China to deepen its involvement in Hungary’s, and therefore the EU’s, security and law enforcement capabilities, which will inevitably include surveillance development— a strategy China has used globally to advance oversight powers for governments. According to China’s official Xinhua news agency, Minister Wang said he hoped to make ‘law enforcement and security cooperation’ a new aspect of the countries’ ‘bilateral relations.’^[2] The development of these capabilities is likely to strengthen the Hungarian government’s control over its population. It also gives China an opportunity to exert influence on EU policing and diplomatic agendas, given Hungary’s veto power over the EU’s foreign and security policies.^[3]

Hungary and China’s expanded relations will advance PM Orbán’s agenda by allowing him more independence from the West. It will also give Beijing stronger ties to a recalcitrant NATO and EU member — Budapest has repeatedly disputed the EU’s financial and military support for Ukraine and was the last to approve Sweden’s accession after a 21-month-long holdout.^[4] For Beijing, closer relations with Hungary are a ‘diplomatic win’ as the EU grows increasingly wary of its relations with China and calls for member states to maintain EU-aligned relations with Beijing.^[5] This pact has caught Hungary at a low point in its relations with the EU and NATO— a situation upon which China has capitalised.^[6]

 

Fico’s Ukraine Perspective Defies European Conventions

On the second anniversary of the war in Ukraine, Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico released a statement that he claimed ‘differed’ from the ‘obligatory speech’ that the ‘liberal media’ and ‘some Western politicians’ expected from him.^[7] However, his comments left few surprised, as they were in line with his previous pro-Russia narratives of the war.^[8] Fico previously labelled Ukraine as ‘not sovereign,’ claiming it is under the ‘total control and influence of the US,’ and deemed it ‘one of the world’s most corrupt nations.’^[9] Moreover, in January, Fico supported Orbán’s blockade of a €50 billion EU aid package for Ukraine, stating, ‘I will never agree that a country [Russia] should be punished for fighting for its sovereignty.’^[10]

In his latest speech, Fico criticised the West and Ukraine, advocating for a peaceful resolution with Russia. Fico claimed that 1) the West’s provisions of military support to Ukraine have proven an ineffective strategy; 2) Russia’s readjustment towards a war economy makes it impossible for Ukraine to end the conflict militarily; and 3) the EU should be pushing for a ceasefire and peace plan between Kyiv and Moscow. He also claimed that ‘the war between Russia and Ukraine began with the rampage of Ukrainian neo-Nazis in 2014.’^[11] His views are echoed by Viktor Orbán, who also claims that “Russia cannot be forced on its knees in the military sense… This conflict has no solution on the battleground.”^[12] Fico and Orbán’s views starkly stray from most European leaders’ assessment of the current situation, defined by a need to promptly increase Ukraine’s military capabilities and stop Putin in Ukraine.^[13] Moreover, the Slovakian prime minister’s remarks at the West reveal a perception of himself and Slovakia as not entirely Western, giving himself room to strike potentially deals with non-Western aligned states.

 

Hungary Ends Holdout on Sweden’s Accession

On February 26, 2024, Hungary’s parliament approved Sweden’s NATO membership, clearing the last necessary hurdle for Stockholm’s accession.^[14] Sweden, which has remained neutral and militarily non-aligned for the last 200 years— spanning both world wars— will be an asset for the North Atlantic Alliance. Joining NATO will provide clarity and security for Northern Europe while reassuring European allies and bolstering military strength in the face of Russia’s increasing aggression and military buildup.

The vote comes after two years of Turkey and Hungary’s holdout on approving Stockholm’s membership.^[15] Though Turkey’s President Erdoğan approved Sweden’s membership back in October 2023 — following Stockholm’s anti-terrorism concessions — Orbán continued to stall, citing Sweden’s criticisms of Hungary’s rule-of-law record.^[16]

Last week, in an effort to sway Budapest, a US delegation and the Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson visited the Hungarian government. The bipartisan US senator delegation attempted to lobby for Sweden’s accession, but Hungarian lawmakers refused to meet with the senators, claiming that their sovereign nation can make its own decisions.^[17] Additionally, on Friday, PM Kristersson met with PM Orbán in a more successful attempt that finally swayed Hungary’s prime minister. Following their meeting, Orbán announced that trust between the two nations has been rebuilt.^[18] The prime ministers also said that they are “prepared to die for each other.”^[19] The likely grease on Hungary’s voting wheel, however, was the new arms deal signed between the two nations. In the deal, Hungary secured the purchase of four Saab JAS Gripen fighter jets from Sweden, showing that bilateral ties must sometimes be used to boost the function of larger, multilateral institutions.^[20]

The following accession steps for Sweden will take several days, as Hungary’s speaker of parliament and president will first have to sign parliament’s ratification in a few days. After this, their accession document must be deposited in Washington, where it should swiftly lead to Sweden’s accession.^[21] Once it is a member, Sweden’s Navy will strengthen NATO’s northern flank in the Baltic Sea, and Sweden’s Air Force will further bolster NATO’s military capacity.^[22]

 

Foreign Troops in Ukraine?

Paris hosted a meeting of 20 European leaders to talk about the security of the continent in the wake of the third year of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. A rumour spread about the possibility of sending Western troops to Ukraine. Many foreigners have already served on the Ukrainian side, but mostly as volunteers or mercenaries. Organised state troops were off the table, and it was the first time the subject was being discussed on the highest level, which looks like checking the waters. The first one to say that such an option can not be ‘ruled out’ was the hosting president of France, Emmanuel Macron. The Greek PM denounced it, stating that there is no such option. The Polish president, Andrzej Duda, confirmed that the subject appeared at the debate. He also underlined that there is no decision on that matter and that voices are varying.^[23]

The sole fact of discussing what has been a solid red line for the last two years for all NATO members is worth noting. After already breaking the taboo on tanks and fighter jet deliveries, the deteriorating frontline situation requires new options. Ukraine needs shells above all but is running low on manpower, whereas Russia is likely preparing for another mass mobilisation after the presidential elections in two weeks.

One can imagine a scenario of such deployment with a rapid path for Ukraine to NATO. Membership would have a security guarantee over territories fully controlled by Ukraine, limiting the war to the current disputed terrains. After lagging behind with actions, the West needs a new dynamism to get out of a pessimistic spin and regain momentum in this conflict. Discussing the unimaginable can be seen as a good sign of a wake-up call to catch up with the mistakes from the past and not exclude any option, staying determined to deter Russia by all means necessary.

 

Authors: Tomasz Obremski, Jessica Maksimov (ed.)

^[1] Liz Lee and Ryan Woo, “In unusual move, China offers to back Hungary in security matters,” Reuters, February 20, 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/unusual-move-china-offers-back-hungary-security-matters-2024-02-19/.

^[2] Ibid.

^[3] “Hungary is becoming more important to China,” The Economist, May 24, 2023, https://www.economist.com/china/2023/05/24/hungary-is-becoming-more-important-to-china.

^[4] Lili Bayer, “China offers to deepen security ties with Hungary,” The Guardian, February 19, 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/19/china-offers-to-deepen-security-ties-with-hungary-orban.

^[5] Liz Lee and Ryan Woo, “In unusual move, China offers to back Hungary in security matters,” Reuters, February 20, 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/unusual-move-china-offers-back-hungary-security-matters-2024-02-19/.

^[6] “Budapest’s isolation was demonstrated…at the Munich security conference, from which senior Hungarian officials were absent,” Lili Bayer, “China offers to deepen security ties with Hungary,” The Guardian, February 19, 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/19/china-offers-to-deepen-security-ties-with-hungary-orban.

^[7] Robert Fico, “Dovoľte mi, aby som pri 2. výročí vojny na Ukrajine,” Facebook, Febraury 24, 2024, https://m.facebook.com/robertficosk/videos/dovo%C4%BEte-mi-aby-som-pri-2-v%C3%BDro%C4%8D%C3%AD-vojny-na-ukrajine-povedal-aj-nie%C4%8Do-in%C3%A9-ako-povin/952252725769619/.

^[8] Mathieu Pollet, “Slovak PM: Ukraine must give up territory to end Russian invasion,” January 21, 2024, https://www.politico.eu/article/slovakia-prime-minister-robert-fico-ukraine-cede-territory-russia-moscow-invasion-nato-entry/.

^[9] Ibid.

^[10]  Ibid.

^[11] Robert Fico, “Dovoľte mi, aby som pri 2. výročí vojny na Ukrajine,” Facebook, Febraury 24, 2024, https://m.facebook.com/robertficosk/videos/dovo%C4%BEte-mi-aby-som-pri-2-v%C3%BDro%C4%8D%C3%AD-vojny-na-ukrajine-povedal-aj-nie%C4%8Do-in%C3%A9-ako-povin/952252725769619/.

^[12] Krisztina Than and Johan Ahlander, “Hungary buys Swedish fighter jets, prepares to approve NATO bid,” Reuters, February 23, 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/hungary-sign-defence-industry-deal-with-sweden-pm-orban-says-2024-02-23/.

^[13] Casimir Pulaski Foundation, “CEE Weekly Update: Omnipresent Pessimism,” Pulaski.pl, February 22, 2024, https://pulaski.pl/en/cee-weekly-update-omnipresent-pessimism-2/.

^[14] Krisztina Than and Niklas Pollard, “Sweden clears final hurdle to join NATO as Hungary approves accession,” Reuters, February 26, 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hungary-set-ratify-swedens-nato-accession-clearing-last-hurdlz-2024-02-26/.

^[15] AP News, “Timeline of Sweden’s bid to join the NATO alliance,” AP News, February 26, 2024, https://apnews.com/article/sweden-turkey-nato-timeline-hungary-fe9560e80b1a43c4037eea7c6f5176bd.

^[16] Krisztina Than and Johan Ahlander, “Hungary buys Swedish fighter jets, prepares to approve NATO bid,” Reuters, February 23, 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/hungary-sign-defence-industry-deal-with-sweden-pm-orban-says-2024-02-23/.

^[17] Justin Spike, “Hungary’s government declines offer to meet US senators seeking approval for Sweden’s NATO bid,” AP News, February 18, 2024, https://apnews.com/article/us-senators-resolution-hungary-democracy-f4972b78c0f1f8d6a905058c8bc250ae.

^[18] Krisztina Than and Johan Ahlander, “Hungary buys Swedish fighter jets, prepares to approve NATO bid,” Reuters, February 23, 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/hungary-sign-defence-industry-deal-with-sweden-pm-orban-says-2024-02-23/.

^[19] Karen Gilchrist, “Hungary votes to approve Sweden’s NATO membership,” CNBC,  https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/26/hungary-votes-to-approve-swedens-nato-membership.html.

^[20] Atlantic Council experts, “It’s Swe-done: What’s next for NATO now that Hungary has approved Sweden’s bid to join,” Atlantic Council, February 26, 2024, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/its-swe-done-whats-next-for-nato-now-that-hungary-has-approved-swedens-bid-to-join/; Krisztina Than and Johan Ahlander, “Hungary buys Swedish fighter jets, prepares to approve NATO bid,” Reuters, February 23, 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/hungary-sign-defence-industry-deal-with-sweden-pm-orban-says-2024-02-23/.

^[21] Krisztina Than and Niklas Pollard, “Sweden clears final hurdle to join NATO as Hungary approves accession,” Reuters, February 26, 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hungary-set-ratify-swedens-nato-accession-clearing-last-hurdlz-2024-02-26/.

^[22] Atlantic Council experts, “It’s Swe-done: What’s next for NATO now that Hungary has approved Sweden’s bid to join,” Atlantic Council, February 26, 2024, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/its-swe-done-whats-next-for-nato-now-that-hungary-has-approved-swedens-bid-to-join/.

^[23] Sylvie Corbet, “Putting Western troops on the ground in Ukraine is not ‘ruled out’ in the future, French leader says”, AP News, February 27, 2024.