Autor: Aleksandra Radomska

The chairman of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, House Representative Mike Turner, released intelligence data to members of the US Congress on 14th February 2024, containing ‘information regarding a serious national security threat’. Official reports released by CNN reveal that Turner, through two informants, obtained ‘highly sensitive data’ on a new security threat linked to Russia.^[1] The intelligence centres around the Russian Federation’s developed offensive military capabilities in space. White House national security spokesman John Kirby issued a statement acknowledging that the verification of this information is ongoing. Their suspicions pertain to the refinement of nuclear capabilities – nuclear–powered anti–satellite weapons (ASAT).^[2]

 

Using Space–Based Nuclear Weapons Under International Space Law

There are currently two treaties in international space law prohibiting an arms race in space. The first is the Treaty Banning Nuclear Weapon Tests in the Atmosphere, in Outer Space and Under Water drawn up in Moscow on 5 August 1963. Currently, 125 states are parties to the Treaty (United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs ‘Treaty Banning Nuclear Weapon Tests in the Atmosphere, in Outer Space and Under Water’). The main objective behind the Treaty’s creation was to curb the proliferation, production and testing of nuclear weapons in outer space. States bound by this Treaty are obliged to prevent the testing of nuclear munitions during which there is a likelihood of a nuclear explosion in any area under the control or jurisdiction of the country.^[3]

The second important regulation is the Outer Space Treaty of 1967,^[4], to which 110 states, including Russia, are signatories.^[5] The Treaty’s provisions ensure that states are granted permission to conduct scientific research on celestial bodies’ surface and in outer space. The economic development, scientific progress and technological resources held by countries do not generate discrimination, as space is a common good, and countries have equal access to it. The Treaty prohibits the appropriation of territory on any celestial body and outer space regions; the occupation, use or declaration of sovereignty on any of these areas is not permitted. With regard to the arms race, the Treaty demarcates the taking and testing of nuclear weapons into space and prohibits the placement of their elements on celestial bodies, as well as the construction of bases, military installations, military fortifications, and the implementation of manoeuvres by armed forces.^[6]

 

Russia’s Potential to Develop Nuclear Propulsion Systems for Military Applications in Space

Since 2021, there has been a noticeably dynamic trend in the development of nuclear technology for military applications in space initiated by Russia. These ventures mainly concern the testing of nuclear propulsion systems. An example of a project currently being developed is the construction of the Zeus system, a space transport vehicle scheduled for deployment in 2030. The system — dedicated to the removal of space debris from Earth’s orbit — is also to be powered by this type of nuclear propulsion unit.^[7] Simultaneously, experimental nuclear–powered long–range cruise missiles are being tested. It is worth highlighting Russia’s military potential in perfecting hypersonic missiles, which perform flights at speeds above Mach five and can carry nuclear warheads. Examples of such means are the Zircon and Kinzhal, both used during the conflict in Ukraine.

Russia is one of the countries that consistently develops its nuclear capabilities. Between 1969 and 1988, 33 reconnaissance and targeting objects with nuclear reactors were launched into low Earth orbit from USSR territory. Since the 1980s, there have been attempts to implement nuclear technologies in satellites. Their detailed tactical and technical parameters are not disclosed, but they would probably be launched into low (LEO), medium (MEO) and geosynchronous orbits (GEO) and be capable of radar reconnaissance and active electronic warfare.^[8] Based on these capabilities, it can be assumed that the Russian Federation is currently developing ASATs with nuclear warheads for the kinetic destruction of satellites or with nuclear propulsion. A nuclear explosion is characterised by a two–stage process; it first kinetically destroys objects in its closest vicinity (burning them), while those slightly more distant are hit by an electromagnetic pulse, preventing their further radio operation. The difficulty is to determine how an object will behave when it is in the area of influence of a nuclear propulsion system, i.e., whether it will be destroyed kinetically or electromagnetically jammed. In either case, launching this type of technology into space would amount to a violation of the Outer Space Treaty of 1967.

 

Consequences of Using Nuclear Capabilities in Space

The operational use of nuclear weapons in space would have a double–edged effect. This means that not only targets in space would be eliminated. At the same time, a high–energy electromagnetic pulse would be directed towards Earth. There would then be a risk that terrestrial infrastructure could be destroyed. The detonation of a tactical nuclear warhead could jam satellite communication systems, as well as destroy them by burning down the internal technical architecture, disrupting or destroying the satellites with military and non–military applications. It is worth citing the example of SpaceX’s Starlink swarm of satellites, which performed a very important function for the Ukrainian armed forces in coordinating unmanned aircraft and artillery attacks against Russian forces. Space weapons using electronic capabilities to jam satellite signals could effectively disable these satellites. This would render GPS guidance systems inoperable, blinding spy satellites and impeding the coordination of military forces around the world.^[9]

Space treaties are the primary sources of international space law but do not adequately address contemporary needs to curb the growing militarisation process and, above all, offensive military–oriented armaments. The legal regulations exhibit a clear gap in addressing the current activities of states in the space domain (their capabilities to carry out operations of an offensive nature).

Since the recognition of space as the fifth dimension of armed combat by NATO in 2019, Russia has been consistently developing space–based military capabilities mainly for strategic deterrence. In 2021, there was a rapid technological leap aimed at perfecting nuclear propulsion systems. These systems can be implemented in anti–satellite weapons as an alternative to rocket propulsion or serve as a type of warhead for kinetic satellite strikes. Placing rocket–powered ASATs in space or launching them from a ground–based location is legitimate in the threat of a collision between two or more space objects, but international space law prohibits the combat use of any nuclear technology in this environment.

The detonation of a nuclear payload in extraterrestrial space has very serious consequences for both the space environment and the Earth’s surface. Violent light bursts, the spread of radioactive fallout, and the kinetic eradication of space objects leading to space deaths can occur. Moreover, the natural balance of space can be disrupted by the formation of artificially induced auroras. In simple terms, this is a non–environmental effect. The public needs to be made aware of global perceptions of space as a new dimension for conducting armed warfare and the potential impacts that could affect terrestrial and environmental infrastructure.

 

Author: Aleksandra Radomska, Junior Reseach Fellow at Casimir Pulaski Foundation

[1]       Bo Lillis, Katie, Marquardt, Alex, Sciutto, Jim, Liebermann, Oren, Bertrand, Natasha, Zanona, Melanie, Liptak, Kevin. ‘US has new intelligence on Russian nuclear capabilities in space.’ Accessed February 19th, 2024. https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/14/politics/house-intel-chairman-serious-national-security-threat/index.html.

[2]       Shalal, Andrea, Holland, Steve. ‘White House: Russia’s anti–satellite capability is concerning but no immediate threat.’ Accessed February 19th, 2024. https://www.reuters.com/world/white-house-russias-anti-satellite-capability-is-concerning-no-immediate-threat-2024-02-15/.

[3]       Art. 1–2, Treaty Banning Nuclear Weapon Tests in the Atmosphere, in Outer Space and Under Water drawn up on 5th August 1963 in Moscow (Dz. U. 1963 No. 52, item 288).

[4]       The full name of the document is the Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies drawn up on 27 January 1967 in Moscow, London and Washington.

[5]       Office for Disarmament Affairs United Nations. ‘Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies.’ Accessed February 19th, 2024. https://www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/ourwork/spacelaw/treaties/introouterspacetreaty.html.

[6]       Art. 1–2, 4, 7–8, 12, 15–16, Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies drawn up on 27 January 1967 in Moscow, London and Washington (Dz. U. 1968 No. 14, item 82).

[7]       Office for Disarmament Affairs United Nations. ‘Treaty Banning Nuclear Weapon Tests in the Atmosphere, in Outer Space and Under Water.’ Accessed February 19th, 2024. https://www.un.org/en/global-issues/disarmament.

[8]       Dress, Brad. ‘What to know about Russia’s nuclear ambitions in space.’ Accessed February 19th, 2024. https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4471236-what-to-know-about-russias-nuclear-ambitions-in-space/.

[9]       Hsu, Jeremy. ‘Russia’s space weapon: Is it nuclear and does it pose a threat?’ Accessed February 19th, 2024. https://www.newscientist.com/article/2417494-russias-space-weapon-is-it-nuclear-and-does-it-pose-a-threat/.