Energy and Resilience

In July 2026, Canada joined the Japanese-Italian-British Global Combat Air Programme – whose goal is to develop a sixth-generation fighter jet – as its first external partner, albeit only as an observer. Germany is also said to be increasingly interested in cooperation, while other nations have long featured on the list of potential candidates. In light of the programme's progress and other factors, including lessons learned from the collapse of a similar Franco-German endeavor, the question remains whether and how Tokyo, London, and Rome will expand the programme.

The midterm elections on November 3 are taking place in an atmosphere of tension that could easily be mistaken for a crisis of the electoral process itself. Figures in the president’s circle who dispute the results of previous elections are urging him to declare a state of emergency and take federal control of the vote under the pretext of foreign interference, while the leading Democrats on the intelligence committees of both chambers have warned the CIA director that, should the president publicly invoke agency intelligence on such interference, they will demand that he confirm whether the president is telling the truth [1]. Disputes over elections are, however, a permanent fixture of American politics, and the decentralized electoral system, while it prolongs the resolution of close races, makes it difficult for any president to seize control of the process nationwide. Moreover, voters are electing Congress, not the president, whose announcements and executive orders do not expand the powers vested in him [2]. What sets this year’s elections apart is their stakes for foreign policy.

In mid-October, unconfirmed rumors of Kim Jong Un’s death circulated in international media. At the same time, North Korea decided to deploy propaganda loudspeakers along the Demilitarized Zone and further intensify the militarization of its border with the Republic of Korea.

The Republic of Korea (ROK) security interests are being increasingly impacted by the war in Ukraine. The most important consequence of the conflict is the empowerment and emboldening of a nation that has been a perennial national security dilemma for both Seoul and Washington: the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK). The ROK suffers what could be called the collateral damage that the Ukraine war and the Russia-DPRK alliance it has produced. To address these issues the ROK is likely to invest in more minilateral groupings in the Indo-Pacific region as opposed to the previous practice of bilateral arrangements. These minilateral cooperative formations are likely to include the US – along with allies that share similar values – these being liberal democracy and a free-market economic system.

The Eastern Partnership enters its seventeenth year in 2026 at the confluence of several processes of fundamental importance for its future: the trajectories of the six partner states – Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine – are diverging today more than ever – ranging from the opening of successive accession negotiation clusters, through new partnership frameworks, to the effective freezing of cooperation. Russia’s war against Ukraine continues to define the security conditions of the entire continent, while the erosion of the existing international order and the growing presence of China, Turkey and the Gulf states in the region are forcing the EU to revise its own approach to Eastern policy – an approach whose financial instruments will be defined in the ongoing negotiations, now entering a decisive phase, on the EU’s Multiannual Financial Framework for 2028–2034. The concept presented in the remainder of this document, together with recommendations for its implementation in the ongoing budget negotiations, is intended to enable the European Union to meet the challenges described above and to build with its Eastern neighbours a lasting partnership, based on mutual benefit and capable of strengthening the security of the whole continent.

Building resilience is often treated as an insurance policy everyone wants, but few are willing to price accurately. Because building systemic defense - whether against climate shocks, cyber warfare, or supply chain collapses - demands immediate capital expenditure for threats that may never materialize, market mechanisms naturally default to underinvestment.

More than 2,800 participants from 90 countries, the Prime Ministers of Poland, Norway and Lithuania, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressing the Forum by video link, and NATO’s SACEUR, Gen. Alexus G. Grynkewich, presenting the Alliance’s Theory of Victory in public for the first time. This was the 13th Warsaw Security Forum, held under the message #UnitedWeStand in a week that put allied unity to the test.

During this year’s Warsaw Security Forum, taking place in Warsaw on 12–13 October, experts will discuss the evolving relationship between North Korea, China and Russia during the roundtable “The North Korea–China–Russia Axis: Myth or Reality?”

On 22nd September, in her speech at the United Nations General Assembly (UN GA) the Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi - as the first Japanese leader since 2005 - urged the removal of the ‘enemy state’ clause from the UN Charter. The provision was included in the UN's founding document to denote nations that fought against the Charter’s original signatories during World War II, specifically targeting Axis powers such as Germany, Italy and Japan. Although over eight decades have passed since the end of the conflict and the ‘enemy states’ are well-functioning democracies, the clause remains in its original form. Moreover, in 1995 the UN GA adopted a resolution stipulating it had ‘become obsolete’ and called for its erasure from the Charter.

According to Finnish media reports, the United Kingdom has proposed extending a nuclear umbrella over the members of the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF). Apart from France and the United States, the UK is the only NATO member possessing its own nuclear capability. The initiative arose in response to declining faith in the nuclear umbrella provided by the United States. Poland's participation in the format would make sense if it were covered by the initiative's nuclear deterrence.

On 16 September, in her State of the Union address, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that she wanted to work on opening the way for Canada to become the first “associate member” of the European Union. Such a status is not provided for in the treaties, its content has yet to be worked out, and, according to media reports, the member states had not been informed of the idea beforehand.

The three-day Donald Trump–Xi Jinping summit, held on 23–25 September 2026, has been widely described as rich in ceremony but poor in substance. The leaders of the United States and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) failed to achieve a breakthrough on any of the major international disputes currently at stake, nor did they announce any significant new initiatives.

On March 12, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) legislature adopted the Law on Promoting Ethnic Unity and Progress (民族团结进步促进法). The adoption of the law took place during the annual Lianghui, or (两会), meaning the “two sessions,” or the annual plenary meetings of China’s top legislative and political advisory bodies. These are the National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference.

The agreement concluded between the Kurds and the government of Ahmed al-Sharaa is very good news, creating an opportunity for Syria’s stabilization. Its key element is Mazlum Abdi’s announced dissolution of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) as a separate formation and the integration of their structures into the Syrian government forces in an organized manner, through the creation of five new brigades based on the SDF. The agreement is also in Europe’s interest, as its effective implementation would reduce the risk of migration pressure and an elevated terrorist threat.

The address of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas was played from a recording, because his delegation had been denied US visas. Abbas spoke of a genocidal war in Gaza, warned that the very existence of the Palestinian people is now under threat, and appealed to Donald Trump to honour his commitment to prevent the annexation of Palestinian land.

The first day of the debate produced a shared diagnosis of a collapsing order. The second produced a dispute over whether the UN is worth repairing at all. Rwandan Prime Minister Justin Nsengiyumva said that the Organization is better at responding to crises than at preventing them, and that institutions earn legitimacy through results rather than promises.

The speeches on the first day of the general debate of the UN General Assembly produced a fairly coherent diagnosis, but no shared remedy. UN Secretary-General António Guterres spoke of four challenges linked to the exercise of power, namely war, inequality, climate change and artificial intelligence.

As the Pentagon reviews the US military presence in Europe and allied capitals assess its possible consequences, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen used her September State of the Union address to present two initiatives that go notably beyond the existing repertoire of EU external policy: an offer of associate member status to Canada and a proposal for a European Security Council.

On Sunday, September 13th, parliamentary, regional council, and municipal council elections were held in Sweden, with nearly 85% of eligible citizens taking part.

On 7 September 2026 an agreement was signed in Kabul that in ordinary circumstances would have been trade press news at most. The Saudi Delta group agreed with the Taliban Ministry of Mines and Petroleum to explore for oil and gas in the west of the country, in Herat province, on the border with Iran and Turkmenistan.