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Following the illegal occupation of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014, the Ukrainian navy, which had been underfunded and neglected for decades, found itself on the brink of collapse. Most Ukrainian ships lost their combat capability or were seized by the aggressors, with their crews surrendering as a result of the Russian operation.

Prompted by Russia’s failed attempt to subjugate Kyiv and deepening internal problems, the members of this axis have nonetheless eschewed the establishment of a formal military alliance. Instead, they are engaged in an episodic, escalating and deepening military, economic, and technological cooperation.

The strategy put forward by the Trump administration appears to be strongly ideologically driven. It explicitly criticises the previous administration, as well as the governing elites to date, accusing them of having misdefined US interests.

Following the publication of U.S. and Ukraine-Europe’s proposed frameworks for resolving the Russia–Ukraine conflict in April 2025, and under pressure from Washington on both Kyiv and Moscow, the two sides agreed to launch direct negotiations in Istanbul on 15 May.

In late August 2025, US President Donald Trump held a summit in the White House Oval Office with the Republic of Korea (ROK) President, Lee Jae Myung. The encounter was not just an ordinary, regular meeting between the heads of state of the US and the ROK, the country being a long-time valued and stalwart US ally. It was seen by many as a crucial interaction for the recently elected South Korean leader.

In the final year of World War I, The Supreme Allied Commander was the French Marshal Ferdinand Foch, who is generally considered as the military leader most responsible for the Allied victory in the conflict. He was a disciple of the Napoleon school of military thought, was sometimes compared to the famous French military genius and upon his death was buried next to Napoleon himself at Les Invalides in Paris.

After more than two and a half years of war, Putin’s military had been consuming artillery rounds and other materiel at a rate that was well above the normal production tempo of Russia’s domestic ammunition suppliers.

By pushing for a rushed peace in Ukraine, the U.S. administration risks stabilizing the Russian regime and undermining Western credibility, security, and leverage for years to come.

The ORKA program, along with other technical modernization efforts, should not be viewed merely as an initiative to acquire modern submarines for the Polish Navy. It also represents a unique opportunity to revitalize Poland’s industrial base. This paper—the concluding entry in a series of analyses examining the ORKA program—shifts focus from hardware specifications and strategic imperatives to the institutional and technological implications for domestic shipbuilding.

The publication by the Government of the Republic of Poland of a new Migration Strategy for 2025–2030 (hereinafter: Migration Strategy), adopted by a resolution of the Council of Ministers on October 15, 2024, not coincidentally came six months after the European Union adopted a set of 9 legal acts appearing under the name of the European Union Pact on Migration and Asylum. Poland opposed many of the Pact’s proposed legal acts at the stage of negotiations (2020–2023) and remains opposed to them after their adoption by a qualified majority in the EU Council.

As of 2025, the transatlantic realm is under sustained assault not through open warfare, but through a diffuse, coordinated campaign of cognitive erosion and covert disruption. Russian and Belarusian intelligence services have deployed a hybrid strategy that merges sabotage, terrorism, psychological manipulation, and narrative infiltration into a long-term frame- work of destabilization of the West. The aim is to fragment trust, fracture resilience, and corrode collective sense-making both within NATO states and across the alliance itself. This is not a campaign to seize territory, but one designed to induce fragmentation of societies, establish antagonistic groups that destabilize states from within, and weaken the cognitive defenses of societies – one perception at a time.

The report presents a forward-looking framework for combining strategic procurement with industrial renewal. It shows how, through targeted collaboration with experienced international partners, Poland can not only field a modern submarine fleet but also cultivate an innovation-driven maritime ecosystem—strengthening long-term economic resilience and national autonomy.

From the perspective of Poland’s presidency in the Council of the European Union, key issues relate to Sino-Russian cooperation in the context of Russia’s war in Ukraine, particularly regarding the amplification of Russian narratives by Chinese media and activities in cyberspace.

Fourth and the last NorPolFactor report takes a closer look at the role of Norway and Poland in transatlantic and European security communities.

As geopolitical tensions rise, Poland and Norway are emerging as key players in Europe's security landscape. Poland, a NATO frontline state, is bolstering its defense with strong U.S. and European partnerships, while Norway focuses on Arctic and maritime security, working closely with allies like the UK and Nordic states.

The events of 2022-2024 period have necessitated a transformation of the EU’s approach, shifting its emphasis from normative influence to a geopolitical strategy prioritizing security and regional stability.

Poland’s primary objective is to support Ukraine’s EU accession without risking destabilization by extensive treaty reform, balancing enlargement aspirations with the need for a resilient, cohesive Union.

The establishment of the so-called Board of Peace, proposed by the President of the United States Donald Trump, should be understood not as an episode linked solely to Gaza, but as a symptom of a deeper transformation of the international order [1]. For the first time since 1945, a key system-shaping actor is not attempting to reform existing security institutions, but is instead deliberately initiating a mechanism that competes with them.

At the close of 2025, as the war in Ukraine enters its fourth year in full scale form, international attention once again turned to Florida. On 28 December 2025, President Volodymyr Zelensky met with President Donald Trump at Mar a Lago.

On 8 January 2026, the administration of Donald Trump announced the initiation of procedures to withdraw the United States from a range of international organisations, conventions, and treaties deemed contrary to U.S. national interests. While formally framed as an administrative and legal review of existing commitments, the decision carries significance far beyond its procedural form.

As public debate in Poland increasingly focuses on the fact that Warsaw has been invited to participate in the G20 summit in 2026, an essential part of the context risks being overlooked.

The Venezuelan moment: intervention without arbitration

One year ago, a small yellow brochure prepared by the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (Myndigheten för samhällsskydd och beredskap; from January 1.01.2026 - Swedish Defence and Resilience Agency, Myndigheten för civilt försvar) circulated widely across Western media and social networks. In Case of Crisis or War opens with a striking message: “To all residents of Sweden, We live in uncertain times. Armed conflicts are currently being waged in our corner of the world. Terrorism, cyber attacks, and disinformation campaigns are being used to undermine and influence us. To resist these threats, we must stand united. If Sweden is attacked, everyone must do their part to defend Sweden’s independence – and our democracy.” [

On October 21, 2025, Sanae Takaichi, a conservative politician representing the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), became the new Prime Minister of Japan. The new prime minister faces a number of challenges related to the country’s political and economic situation, as well as the stabilization of her own party.

On 9 January 2024, the Norwegian Parliament (Storting) approved the proposal of opening parts of the Norwegian sea to mineral activities, marking the beginning of the exploratory stage of deep sea mining (DSM) on the Norwegian continental shelf [1]. Eleven months later, however, the operations were abruptly stopped, as the Socialist Left Party of Norway (Sosialistisk Venstreparti) threatened the refusal of the government budget for 2025 [2]. This seemingly minor event triggered a larger, albeit not necessarily well-publicised conversation: what actually is deep sea mining, and why does it matter?

Remote and small island communities face unique energy and climate challenges stemming from their geographic isolation. Their reliance on imported fossil fuels leaves them vulnerable to price volatility and supply disruptions. Although their carbon footprint is minimal, these islands disproportionately experience the adverse effects of climate change. Increasingly, islands become testbeds for geopolitical rivalry and are compelled to adapt to situations when critical infrastructure is weaponised.

The establishment of the so-called Board of Peace, proposed by the President of the United States Donald Trump, should be understood not as an episode linked solely to Gaza, but as a symptom of a deeper transformation of the international order [1]. For the first time since 1945, a key system-shaping actor is not attempting to reform existing security institutions, but is instead deliberately initiating a mechanism that competes with them.

At the close of 2025, as the war in Ukraine enters its fourth year in full scale form, international attention once again turned to Florida. On 28 December 2025, President Volodymyr Zelensky met with President Donald Trump at Mar a Lago.

On 8 January 2026, the administration of Donald Trump announced the initiation of procedures to withdraw the United States from a range of international organisations, conventions, and treaties deemed contrary to U.S. national interests. While formally framed as an administrative and legal review of existing commitments, the decision carries significance far beyond its procedural form.

As public debate in Poland increasingly focuses on the fact that Warsaw has been invited to participate in the G20 summit in 2026, an essential part of the context risks being overlooked.

The Venezuelan moment: intervention without arbitration

On 4 August 2025, an international group of scientists, technologists, diplomats, and international law experts issued the Potsdam Call on Autonomous Weapon Systems.

Grand strategy aligns a nation’s military, diplomatic, economic, and technological resources to achieve long-term international objectives. France’s grand strategy, shaped by a historical pursuit of global influence and independence, balances leadership in European defense with a role as a global mediator.

A timely breakthrough at the July 2025 New York United Nations meeting marks a new era for global cyber governance, anchored in international law and multilateral cooperation.

In recent years, artificial intelligence has become one of the most important areas of strategic competition between nations. Europe, although still catching up with the U.S. and China, is taking steps to build its own technological sovereignty in this domain. Among European countries, France has emerged as the frontrunner, showcasing an ambitious AI policy that combines public investment, talent development, support for startups, and an ethical approach to technology.

In a surprise decision, LOT Polish Airlines have shunned their long-time supplier, Brazil’s Embraer, and have instead signed a massive order for the Airbus A220 to fill the company’s regional jet fleet requirement.