Latest Publications

Poland faces a decision that shapes its long-term security architecture: whether the younger generation will become an active strategic asset for the state, or remain a group that is merely a target of public policies without having any real influence over their design.

On March 2, 2026, French President Emmanuel Macron announced in Brest a revision of nuclear deterrence policy aimed at increasing France’s nuclear potential and enhancing cooperation in this area with allies. This is another element of a broader adaptation of French security policy in the context of Russia’s war against Ukraine and growing uncertainty regarding the United States’ commitment to European security, including in light of the new U.S. National Security Strategy.

The military conflict in Iran, which began at the end of February 2026, has triggered an energy crisis of a structural nature. Its essence lies not only in the resulting decline in oil or gas production, but in the destabilization of the transport and trade system for hydrocarbons.

There is a growing amount of information in the public domain concerning the construction of large-scale nuclear reactors and small modular reactors in Poland. However, in addition to nuclear reactors used for electricity generation, research reactors also play an important role. The MARIA research nuclear reactor has been operating for many years at the National Center for Nuclear Research in Otwock, mainly used to produce radioisotopes for medical purposes.

Over the past two decades, the Republic of South Korea (ROK) has undergone a dramatic transformation in defence-industrial design and production. Like most major initiatives historically taken on by the country, it is also a transformation that has taken place in record time.

From its inception, the Port of Gdynia was a state project with significance that extended beyond its transport and trade functions. Its construction in the interwar period was a response to the Second Polish Republic's structural dependence on external factors and constituted a conscious act of sovereignty, in which maritime infrastructure was recognized as a condition for the state's operational independence.

Following the illegal occupation of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014, the Ukrainian navy, which had been underfunded and neglected for decades, found itself on the brink of collapse. Most Ukrainian ships lost their combat capability or were seized by the aggressors, with their crews surrendering as a result of the Russian operation.

Prompted by Russia’s failed attempt to subjugate Kyiv and deepening internal problems, the members of this axis have nonetheless eschewed the establishment of a formal military alliance. Instead, they are engaged in an episodic, escalating and deepening military, economic, and technological cooperation.

The strategy put forward by the Trump administration appears to be strongly ideologically driven. It explicitly criticises the previous administration, as well as the governing elites to date, accusing them of having misdefined US interests.

Following the publication of U.S. and Ukraine-Europe’s proposed frameworks for resolving the Russia–Ukraine conflict in April 2025, and under pressure from Washington on both Kyiv and Moscow, the two sides agreed to launch direct negotiations in Istanbul on 15 May.

Poland’s energy security has undergone a fundamental transformation in recent years, shifting from dependence on external suppliers to a system built on diversified infrastructure and greater national control. While this has reduced vulnerability to political coercion, it has also created a more complex system in which security depends increasingly on the resilience of infrastructure and the ability of institutions to respond under pressure.

As of 2025, the transatlantic realm is under sustained assault not through open warfare, but through a diffuse, coordinated campaign of cognitive erosion and covert disruption. Russian and Belarusian intelligence services have deployed a hybrid strategy that merges sabotage, terrorism, psychological manipulation, and narrative infiltration into a long-term frame- work of destabilization of the West. The aim is to fragment trust, fracture resilience, and corrode collective sense-making both within NATO states and across the alliance itself. This is not a campaign to seize territory, but one designed to induce fragmentation of societies, establish antagonistic groups that destabilize states from within, and weaken the cognitive defenses of societies – one perception at a time.

Energy Efficiency in the Service of Security: Recommendations for Reforming the White Certificate System is an analysis of the systemic inadequacy of a key mechanism for supporting energy efficiency investments to the realities of energy transformation and national security.

The report presents a forward-looking framework for combining strategic procurement with industrial renewal. It shows how, through targeted collaboration with experienced international partners, Poland can not only field a modern submarine fleet but also cultivate an innovation-driven maritime ecosystem—strengthening long-term economic resilience and national autonomy.

From the perspective of Poland’s presidency in the Council of the European Union, key issues relate to Sino-Russian cooperation in the context of Russia’s war in Ukraine, particularly regarding the amplification of Russian narratives by Chinese media and activities in cyberspace.

Fourth and the last NorPolFactor report takes a closer look at the role of Norway and Poland in transatlantic and European security communities.

As geopolitical tensions rise, Poland and Norway are emerging as key players in Europe's security landscape. Poland, a NATO frontline state, is bolstering its defense with strong U.S. and European partnerships, while Norway focuses on Arctic and maritime security, working closely with allies like the UK and Nordic states.

The events of 2022-2024 period have necessitated a transformation of the EU’s approach, shifting its emphasis from normative influence to a geopolitical strategy prioritizing security and regional stability.

Todays near standoff between the Philippines and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in the Scarborough Shoal is a reminder that over time foreign policy mistakes only expand in their complexity and negative implications.

Away from the deadlines reporting on the US-Israeli war with Iran (now in a hiatus phase), another, concurrent armed conflict has been taking place, expanding in both geographic scope and intensity, namely the Israeli invasion of Lebanon. Hezbollah launched projectiles on 1st March into Haifa (all of which were intercepted) as revenge for the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The Israeli responded with a rocket barrage ultimately targeting 50 villages south of the Litani River and southern Beirut (evacuation orders were sent last minute to the Lebanese civilian population), followed by a ground assault. This event marked the outbreak of the seventh armed conflict between Israel and Lebanon since the establishment of the State of Israel

Cheng Li-wun, Kuomintang’s (KMT – current Taiwanese opposition) leader, just concluded her April 7-12 visit to People’s Republic of China.

António Guterres is finishing his ten-year tenure in a world that barely resembles the one the UN was built for. Peace negotiations happen without the organization. Conflicts are managed outside the Security Council. Alternative frameworks are displacing institutions.

Energy security in the Arctic constitutes a multifaceted phenomenon, encompassing a wide array of concerns, including political, security, socio-economic, technological and identity dimensions. It involves questions of land ownership, the rights of stakeholders, pristine nature, and re-industrialisation delineated through green technologies.

Despite continuing to frame itself in great-power terms, Russia is gradually losing the capacity to perform the systemic functions that for decades made it an indispensable actor in the international order.

Recent events in relation to Greenland struck a lot of controversy and provoked many reactions. The subject isn’t new as the first time Donald Trump publicly admitted that the US should try to acquire Greenland was 18th August 2019. That day, he confirmed he was considering an attempt to buy Greenland and added that it “would be strategically nice [for the USA to own]”.

The conflict between Israel and the United States against Iran unfolds amid a deepening crisis of the international liberal order established after World War II. This war highlights a series of shocks that undermine the legitimacy of the existing axiological framework.

On March 20 of this year, the U.S. Department of State established a new institution—the Bureau of Disaster and Humanitarian Response (DHR).

As public debate in Poland increasingly focuses on the fact that Warsaw has been invited to participate in the G20 summit in 2026, an essential part of the context risks being overlooked.

On 4 August 2025, an international group of scientists, technologists, diplomats, and international law experts issued the Potsdam Call on Autonomous Weapon Systems.

Grand strategy aligns a nation’s military, diplomatic, economic, and technological resources to achieve long-term international objectives. France’s grand strategy, shaped by a historical pursuit of global influence and independence, balances leadership in European defense with a role as a global mediator.

A timely breakthrough at the July 2025 New York United Nations meeting marks a new era for global cyber governance, anchored in international law and multilateral cooperation.

In recent years, artificial intelligence has become one of the most important areas of strategic competition between nations. Europe, although still catching up with the U.S. and China, is taking steps to build its own technological sovereignty in this domain. Among European countries, France has emerged as the frontrunner, showcasing an ambitious AI policy that combines public investment, talent development, support for startups, and an ethical approach to technology.

In a surprise decision, LOT Polish Airlines have shunned their long-time supplier, Brazil’s Embraer, and have instead signed a massive order for the Airbus A220 to fill the company’s regional jet fleet requirement. 

Romania's ambition to be a pillar of Euro-Atlantic stability in the Black Sea region is at risk of unraveling under a presidency defined by MAGA-style nationalism and regional isolationism.

On April 30, 2025, the governments of the United States and Ukraine signed the Agreement on the Establishment of a United States–Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund (“Agreement”). While publicly framed as a post-conflict development initiative, the Agreement should be more accurately understood as a layered instrument of geopolitical positioning and geoeconomic restructuring.